Russia and the West. In search of a Putin policy

How to respond to a regime that is simultaneously assertive and paranoid

THROUGHOUT its turbulent history, Russia has been prickly. At various times it has bullied, invaded or fought against almost all its neighbours. Yet at the same time it has demanded to be treated with respect, as a great power with a rightful place in the high chancelleries of Europe and the world. And for that reason, it has been surprisingly sensitive to outside criticism.

In his annual state address this week, President Vladimir Putin inveighed against those who clung to an era of global confrontation, and against enemies who would weaken his country. This followed the furious reaction in Moscow to last week's speech in Vilnius by Dick Cheney, in which the American vice-president criticised the Russian government for restricting the rights of its own people, interfering in neighbouring countries and exploiting its oil and gas reserves as tools for intimidation and blackmail. The Russians indignantly reject such charges; some even talk of a revival of Russophobia.

Many Russians also accuse the Americans of hypocrisy. The United States uses energy as a political tool, it influences and even invades other countries, its criticism of Russia is not matched by attacks on other autocratic governments such as Azerbaijan's or Kazakhstan's. A lot of Europeans share these criticisms, and they also question the wisdom of provoking Moscow when not only is their energy dependence on Russia increasing, but the West needs its help over Iran.

Given these reactions, it is worth emphasising that Mr Cheney's analysis was spot on. Admittedly, not everything has gone wrong in Russia. Thanks in good measure to high energy prices, the economy is growing fast and living standards are rising. Mr Putin still seems popular with ordinary Russians, who like the stability he has brought (though most see and hear only what the Kremlin wants them to). A respectable case can also be made for raising Russian gas prices to wean its near neighbours off their Soviet-era subsidies.

Living with a bear

Yet it is clear that Russia under Mr Putin has moved sharply away from the chaotic but recognisable democracy that he inherited, and towards a centralised and intolerant autocracy that stamps on the merest hints of independent opposition. The country is also drifting into a resurgent form of virulent nationalism, with a nastily racist edge to it (see page 41). Russia's bullying of small fry such as Georgia or Moldova continues apace. And it is pursuing an overt agenda of divide-and-rule when it comes to reminding both its near neighbours and the big countries of western Europe of their dependence on imports of Russian gas.

The real question for the West should no longer be: is Mr Putin's Russia heading in the wrong direction--for the answer is unarguably yes. Instead it should be: what can we do about it? One answer may be "not much". Russia no longer needs the West's economic and financial help, as it did in the Yeltsin years. It is not going to shed its new-found self-confidence and assertiveness just because of a few speeches.

Even so, as his address this week confirmed, Mr Putin is by no means impervious to outside criticism. He is more likely to be impressed if such criticism is unanimous. Over the past five years disappointingly few European leaders have spoken as forthrightly as Mr Cheney did--indeed, nor has Mr Cheney's boss, George Bush. Worse, several countries have connived in Russia's divide-and-rule approach--notably Germany, which even under its new chancellor, Angela Merkel, has been far too keen on bilateral deals, such as the building of a new under-sea pipeline, heedless of the concerns of its nearest eastern neighbours. If western Europeans are to counter Russian aggressiveness over energy, they must present a united front: for example, by making clear that, should the Russians ever threaten to cut off energy supplies to individual countries, including former parts of the Soviet Union that are not yet in the European Union, their western friends will step in to help.

Should tougher sanctions be wielded, such as boycotting the G8 summit in St Petersburg in July, or obstructing Russian membership of the World Trade Organisation? No, for any such threats would serve only to encourage the paranoid view of some in the Kremlin who believe that the West will always be their enemy. The right approach is to engage constructively with Russia while not being afraid to criticise it--and to try hard to persuade the Russians that the West can be a friend, not an enemy, if only their country resumes its path towards being a properly functioning democracy.

Editorial asks: How to respond to a regime in Russia that is both assertive and paranoid.

• Primary Source