Montenegro on EU map

Date: 24/05/06

In the wake of its vote on independence Montenegro will soon begin talks with the European Union. In a referendum held on 21 May, a majority of Montenegrins voted to split from Serbia, a move which is expected to be formalised within weeks.

Premier Milo Djukanovic, who spearheaded the drive for independence, will travel on 29 May to Brussels, where he is expected to meet Olli Rehn, the enlargement commissioner, and Javier Solana, the EU's foreign policy chief.

The result of the referendum was greeted with relief by EU officials.

In a bid to avoid an opposition boycott the EU had insisted that 55% of those voting had to be in favour of independence for the republic to seek international recognition. The move was a gamble because if more than 50% but less than 55% had voted for statehood months of political turmoil could have ensued.

On 23 May, the republic's election commission confirmed earlier projections that, with 86.9% of the electorate voting, 55.5% had voted for independence while 44.5% had voted against. Leaders of political parties which had campaigned to retain the state union with Serbia said that there had been numerous electoral irregularities and, on the evening of 23 May, they said that they intended to lodge official complaints with the republic's election commission.

Montenegro has a population of 672,000. The tiny electorate means that the 0.5% by which independence appears to have been secured (pending a formal endorsement of the results) represents just over 2,000 votes.

On 3 May the EU suspended talks with Serbia and Montenegro on a Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA), which is the first step towards negotiations on eventual membership. The reason was the failure of the Serbian government of Vojislav Kostunica to keep its promise to arrest General Ratko Mladic�, the former Bosnian Serb commander indicted by the war crimes tribunal in The Hague.

The pro-union side in Montenegro had argued that together Serbia and

Montenegro would move faster towards EU membership. The suspension of talks undermined one of their key arguments.

Over the last few years, large amounts of EU money have poured into Montenegro. For 2000-06 the European Agency for Reconstruction is overseeing the disbursement of EUR 114 million. This year the EU as a whole will give Montenegro EUR 25m in aid.

Large amounts are also being disbursed as loans by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the European Investment Bank.

In the wake of the referendum result, which was greeted with jubilation in the capital Podgorica, Djukanovic said he hoped that, after the accession of Bulgaria, Romania and Croatia, Montenegro would be the next EU member.

Since beginning talks with the EU on an SAA, Serbia and Montenegro have, for the vast majority of topics, negotiated on a so-called twin track. This means it will be easy for Montenegro to carry on where it left off when the talks were suspended. According to Judy Batt, of the EU's Institute for Security Studies, who was in Podgorica for the referendum, these negotiations could be completed by the end of the year.

Talks between EU and Montenegrin officials on restarting the negotiations are scheduled for 1 June. According to Batt, the EU and Montenegro could sign an SAA by the end of the year. Unless it arrests Mladic, Serbia will now start to fall seriously behind its former partner.

Batt said that she hoped the EU states would recognise Montenegro as soon as possible after all the formalities relating to the referendum had been completed. "It is important to keep the momentum up," she said.

Within a year Europe, which will have two new states in Serbia and Montenegro, could well be joined by a third, which is neighbouring Kosovo. Talks overseen by the UN on the future of this ethnic-Albanian dominated province of Serbia have already begun and could in the end lead to independence.

• Tim Judah is a freelance journalist who writes on the Balkans for The Economist.

Article reports that after Montenegro's population voted for independence from Serbia on 21 May 2006, negotiations with the EU on a Stabilisation and Association Agreement could be started as early as 1 June. The EU had suspended negotiations with the State Union of Serbia and Montenegro over lack of co-operation on Serbian war criminals.

European Commission: DG Enlargement: Countries of the Western Balkans: Serbia and Montenegro http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/potential-candidates/serbia/index_en.htm

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