Avian flu: just for the birds?

EU officials emphasise that the current outbreak of avian influenza is still largely a matter of animal health, not having passed broadly to humans. Their focus remains primarily on preventing the transfer of the disease from wild fowl to poultry flocks and preparing for animal quarantines if a large-scale outbreak takes place.

Why the focus only on animals? It is true the disease remains confined to birds - so emphasis must first be placed there. Evidence suggests that the H5N1 virus does not transmit easily to humans, much less between humans. And EU officials are right not to cause premature public alarm, instead directing their energies to consulting experts, gathering information and making timely reports widely available. Insiders say the Commission, treated unfairly as a scapegoat during previous crises, is keen to focus on established tasks rather than overstretch its competences. It is not easy to prepare for a human pandemic, for instance, when member states have slashed the EU health budget and withheld authority for Brussels to take part at a useful level.

This all suggests, though, that we have not learned our lessons from just a few years ago, when Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) gripp-ed the globe. During the first four months of 2003, a wide number of sectors - many outside of health - virtually collapsed. And that happened not just in far away Asia but in Western societies closer to home. In Europe and the US, patients complaining of symptoms clogged hospitals and hampered investigation. In Canada, a relatively small number of SARS deaths shut down airports and led to widespread absenteeism at work. Tourism dropped and economic indicators teetered. Trade between wealthy nations was put under threat, resulting in crisis meetings to keep export routes open. In Asia, exports were shut off, subsistence economies ground to a halt, and imports slowed because of concerns about contagion amongst dock workers. Worldwide, the crisis spilled over into social relations as minority citizens accused governments of selective re!

sponse strategies.

The potential for a similar 'cascading crisis' is already appearing here in Europe. The decision to vaccinate poultry flocks in France and the Netherlands means potential trade problems for the whole EU block. Europe's farmers will certainly demand compensation, further straining the EU budget and even giving ammunition to those calling for a 're-nationalisation' of the Union's Common Agriculture Policy. If the disease spreads to humans (and the speed with which it has spread from Asian poultry to migratory birds is indeed worrisome), then Europe will have real problems. The World Health Organization predicts that up to 50% of employees in the public and private sectors may not show up for work in the event of an outbreak. Those same employees ensure that basic services, commodities and medicines get delivered on a daily basis in Europe. The International Monetary Fund predicts a breakdown in the global banking and financial sectors if too few companies make contingency plan!

s. EU trade negotiators will have only one task ahead if avian influenza infects Europeans soon: how to protect EU trade flowing. And what will be the global costs if widespread culling of poultry in Africa - and thus the sole means of nourishment for many poor families - leads to severe famine?

Seen from this angle, the prospect of a bird-flu crisis extending beyond the animal health sector is almost certain. Yet we need not despair. On the contrary, if public authorities recognise these potentials and prepare for problems now, we can still lessen the damage that a full outbreak might bring.

There is good news on the European level, too. EU competences, which span most of the affected sectors, can be deployed to assist in crisis management. And Eurobarometer polls suggests that the European public, while seriously concerned about influenza, trusts EU action to combat it. But that requires all EU sectors, not just those obviously affected, to wake up now and prepare for the cascading effects of an influenza outbreak.

• Nina Matz�is an analyst at the Swedish National Defence College. Antonio Missiroli is chief policy analyst at the European Policy Centre in Brussels. Mark Rhinard is senior researcher at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs in Stockholm. Each writes here in a personal capacity.

Major commentary feature in which the authors say that if avian influenza was to spread to humans, Europe would have real problems.
Article is part of a European Voice Special Report, 'Pandemics'.
Article is part of a European Voice Special Report, 'Pandemics'.

European Commission: DG Health and Consumer Protection: Animal Health & Welfare: Avian Influenza - introduction http://ec.europa.eu/comm/food/animal/diseases/controlmeasures/avian/index_en.htm

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