Avian flu. Ominous

Bird flu spreads around the globe

FOR most of the past three years, the highly pathogenic bird flu known as H5N1 has been found mainly in Asia. Suddenly it has arrived in many countries in Europe, triggering widespread alarm. The detection of the virus in wild birds across Europe is certainly a cause for concern, particularly to Europe's poultry farmers, who are rightfully worried that the presence of the virus in wild birds will increase the risk to their flocks. However, in the midst of a European debate about the benefits of vaccinating chickens and whether or not poultry should be brought indoors, there is a danger that far more significant events elsewhere will be overlooked.

In particular, most attention should be focused on the fact that bird flu is now widespread in the poultry flocks of two nations in Africa--Egypt and Nigeria--and in India. And on the fact that, in Nigeria, the disease is continuing to spread despite great efforts undertaken by the government. An outbreak in Afghanistan also appears to be inevitable.

Arguably, these matter much more than the (also inevitable) arrival of the disease in Europe. Poor countries with large rural populations are in a far weaker position to handle, and stamp out, outbreaks of bird flu in poultry, through both culling and the prevention of the movement of animals in the surrounding areas. In Africa and India, chickens and ducks are far more likely to be found roaming in people's backyards, where they can mingle with humans, other domestic animals and wildlife, thus spreading the disease. In Europe, by contrast, most poultry are kept in regulated commercial farms.

The opening up of a new African front for the bird-flu virus is a problem because eradication there will be tremendously difficult. There is a high risk that the disease will spread to other countries on the continent and it could easily become endemic--as it has in Asia. This offers the virus huge new scope to mutate and become a disease that can pass between humans. The virus is certainly mutating--genetic changes have already affected its biological behaviour, although apparently not yet its transmission between humans. Experts are unsure as to how much, and what kind, of genetic changes would be required for the virus to become a global health threat. Nor do they know how long this process might take.

But to dwell on the increased risk of a pandemic of influenza is to miss a serious point about the direct risks posed by the loss of a large numbers of chickens and ducks across Africa. For some time, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation has been warning that if avian flu gets out of control in Africa, it will have a devastating impact on the livelihoods of millions of people. Poultry is a vital source of protein. For example, it provides almost 50% of the protein in the diet of Egyptians. The spread of a disease that is highly lethal to poultry, and requires culling, could have a dire nutritional impact, there as elsewhere. Africa would also have to contend with huge economic losses. People who scratch out a living in poor African nations simply cannot afford to lose their chickens. Most of the world's poor live in rural areas and depend on agriculture. In Africa, rather a lot of these poor people depend heavily on their poultry. It is easy to see why some believe that bird flu could turn out to be primarily a development--rather than just a health--issue for the whole African continent.

No game of chicken

What can be done? It is clear that the movement and trade of poultry is making a big contribution to the spread of the virus ()see page 89. That trade needs tighter regulation, as does the movement of live birds from countries with H5N1 infections. In such places trade should be suspended until flocks have been cleaned up.

In addition, Nigeria and surrounding countries need serious public-education campaigns about the danger of contact with dead birds. When outbreaks occur, governments should immediately offer realistic compensation to farmers for birds lost to disease and culling. Without this, poor farmers will be tempted to hide bird-flu outbreaks and continue to sell poultry that should be culled. Farming practices that mix poultry species in farms or live animal markets are a danger too, and must be addressed--although that might take longer. The effort would be helped if those in the poultry industry and governments in poultry-exporting nations would stop simply pointing to the risks posed by wild birds and start paying more attention to the movement of animals, products and people from infected to un-infected regions and countries.

Unusually for a complex problem with international ramifications, money is available to make a serious attempt at tackling it--$1.9 billion was pledged by the world's wealthier nations last month in Beijing. There is no excuse for delay, unless we want more dead people to follow lots more dead ducks.

Editorial discusses the concerns for animal welfare and human health of the spreading incidence in the world of bird flu.