Poland’s shaky government. New ideas

Date: 14/01/06

A promising new finance minister, but plenty of problems lie ahead

TO ITS critics, Poland's right-wing minority government was doomed even before it took office in October. It depends on the votes of cranky populist parties; it is short of talent; and it is run by the slightly weird Kaczynski brothers (Lech is president of Poland; his identical twin, Jaroslaw, leads the ruling Law and Justice party). Its provincial outlook seemed likely to cripple Poland on the world stage.

The new government has shown a weakness for populist gimmicks: the justice minister intervened to free a bunch of vigilantes who beat a petty criminal to death; a deputy prime minister said that doctors who did not co-operate with health reforms should be drafted into the army. But the Kaczynski twins and their prime minister, Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz, are proving wily operators. Mr Marcinkiewicz negotiated effectively at the European summit last month. Poland is taking command of NATO forces in Afghanistan in 2007, while also maintaining troops in Iraq.

At home, the government has wrongfooted its main opposition, Civic Platform, by appointing as finance minister one of that party's brightest former stars, Zyta Gilowska. Her predecessor, Teresa Lubinska, was wildly out of her depth in the post, as shown both by some bizarre public statements denouncing foreign investors and praising budget deficits and by her inept management of the ministry. Ms Gilowska secured a deputy prime ministership to give her added clout. Her appointment has sent the zloty soaring.

What is good for the government is bad for Civic Platform. Its leadership had sidelined Ms Gilowska, ostensibly on charges of nepotism, after she gave a job to her son. Many thought that the real reason was that she was an outsider, a brainbox with a provincial background, not a member of the charmed circle of reformers in Warsaw. Now others from Civic Platform's ragged ranks may follow her. There is a tempting vacancy as privatisation minister, after Andrzej Mikosz resigned last week over criticism of a loan his wife once made to a controversial businessman.

Ms Gilowska's appointment has annoyed the populist parties on which the government depends for support. Self Defence, a leftish outfit led by the demagogic Andrzej Lepper, said the government was "exposing its liberal mask"; the League of Polish Families, a right-wing party with an anti-Semitic youth wing, called it an "appalling error". But they will still back the government in the forthcoming budget vote: the parties' poor poll ratings make early elections a threatening prospect.

There is plenty for Ms Gilowska to do. Making the public finances more transparent would cut waste and corruption. The tax bureaucracy wastes much of the time of Polish firms. But questions remain over the government's economic policy. Can Ms Gilowska, who lacks a power base of her own, fight off spending ministries? Can she make good on her enthusiasm for a 15% flat tax, a policy that Law and Justice dismisses as unfair? And when will Poland join the euro? The government may have disarmed its domestic critics, but it has some tough decisions ahead.