Adding more borders to Europe’s map …

Date: 19/01/06

There is still a slim chance that Montenegrins will vote to retain the state union with Serbia in an April plebiscite, but if the opinion polls are correct the break-up of Yugoslavia is likely to continue a decade and a half after Slovenia and Croatia declared their independence.

Similarly, talks already under way on the final status of Kosovo may lead to something short of independence, but it seems probable that two more countries will be found on the map of Europe in the not so distant future.

After years of discouraging Montenegro's independence for fear that it may cause neighbouring Kosovo to boil over, the international community and the EU find themselves with the two issues reaching a crucial point at the same time.

There is also concern about the impact in Belgrade, although Kosovo has been a de facto international protectorate since 1999 and Montenegro has been de facto sovereign since the same year.

The loss of the Montenegrin coast has not been forgotten by some of Serbia's more nostalgic generals and for many ordinary Serbs it is difficult to avoid the impression that the territory that Belgrade has influence over, however nominally, is peeling away.

This has prompted Serbian President Boris Tadic to warn that independence for both could prompt a resurgence in Serb nationalism.

As ever there is concern that Montenegrin independence will inflame the Kosovo debate and even destabilise relations between the central government of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the region of Republika Srpska.

Yet, however difficult the negotiations over Kosovo, with hard-line nationalists on both sides ready to stoke tensions, there is a sense that momentum must be regained.

Many in Brussels acknowledge an agreement on Kosovo's status will first and foremost mean an increase in responsibility, with the EU likely to take over the lead role from the UN.

Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn has already urged the EU to make preparations for the financial burden it will face in a post-agreement Kosovo.

Some have pointed to a lack of regional ownership in the process - with politicians from both Kosovo and Serbia willing to wait for the international community to impose a solution - as evidence that the EU's task is likely to be fraught and lengthy.

But according to James Lyon, the Serbia project director for the International Crisis Group, a non-governmental organisation, the impact of double independence will be a positive one for the EU, Serbia and the region.

"It will encourage stability in the Balkans. To have stability in the Balkans you need Serbia to be stable and that is difficult as long as there are questions about its borders."

Although the prospect of seven potential EU members may look to some too much like another big bang enlargement, Lyon says that independence would also enable the EU to target issues such as organised crime and political reforms more effectively.

"They have hidden behind the state union. Now it will be possible to target Montenegro without hitting Serbia and vice versa," he adds.

Analysis feature looking at two key events expected for 2006: the referendum on independence in Montenegro, which would mean then break-up of the State Union with Serbia, and the negotiations on a final status for the Kosovo province. Article is part of a European Voice Special Report, 'EU-Balkans'.