Ghosts still haunt Balkans

Date: 19/01/06

For those who reject the idea that the Balkans are destined to be plagued by intractable blood feuds and ancient rivalries, 2006 may be a difficult year.

The centuries-old question of Kosovo will once again come to the fore, as the international community, terrified by the violence which erupted in the province in March 2004, moves rapidly towards talks on the final status of the province.

In the spring Montenegro will hold a plebiscite which, if the regional government wins, will break the state union with Serbia, once again redrawing the borders of the former Yugoslavia. The year 2006 could see the emergence of two new states on Europe's map.

The idea that the region is destined for an endless cycle of violence, forcefully put in Robert D. Kaplan's 1993 book Balkan Ghosts, was going out of fashion. But today Kaplan's ghost once again hovers over the region.

According to Bill Clinton's biographers, Kaplan's ideas were crucial in informing the 42nd US president's initial reluctance to intervene militarily.

Today's generation of European politicians appear more like the reluctant Clinton than their guilt-ridden predecessors, who chanted the mantra of EU membership for the Balkans.

French Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy may still be in the minority in calling for a freeze on further enlargement, but his ideas do appear to be in the ascendant.

Despite the Union having virtual protectorates in Bosnia, Macedonia and soon Kosovo, the Balkans may be a casualty of the rejection of the EU constitution in the Netherlands and France.

In the eyes of those favouring EU integration, having Austria at the EU's reins until July may prove a saving grace for the Balkans. The Austrian government has been a steady supporter of the Balkans and it was Austria's stubborn pressure on its EU counterparts that led to the opening of accession negotiations with Croatia on 4 October. The Austrian EU presidency put the Balkans at the top of its political agenda for the following six months.

At the end of the 1990s it was more difficult to detect such apprehension on the part of European politicians. The costs of not intervening had been made clear by the crisis in Bosnia in 1991-95 and again in Kosovo four years later. By that point Europe had been shamed into action.

So in Zagreb in 2000 the EU took the first major step towards trying to put the Balkans ghosts to rest, offering a "European perspective" for Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia and what is now known as Serbia and Montenegro.

In the clearest possible terms EU leaders said that the countries of the Western Balkans should become members of the Union.

A series of benchmarks were set up to lock the five countries into the process.

Stabilisation and association agreements formed the basis of this approach, acting as a stepping stone to opening membership negotiations, consolidating the democratic gains of the late 1990s and providing a scoreboard to measure progress in reform.

Despite this decade of engagement, waning EU interest and insufficient progress in the region may yet prove Kaplan's theory right.

Major commentary feature on the prospects for the Western Balkan countries in 2006, with negotiations on Kosovo's final status and the referendum on independence in Montenegro in the offing. Article is part of a European Voice Special Report, 'EU-Balkans'.