European Commission issues Autumn 1999 Economic Forecasts and new EU Economy Review, November 1999

On 24 November 1999 the European Commission issued its Autumn 1999 Economic Forecasts for the period 1999-2001. These forecasts are issued twice a year in the spring and autumn and present the Commission's macroeconomic predictions for the EU economy for the forthcoming two to three years. The forecasts are published in the printed series European Economy: Supplement A, No.10-11, October-November 1999. In addition, the most recent forecasts are available in pdf format on the website of the European Commission: DG II: Economic and Financial Affairs. A summary of the Autumn 1999 forecasts is also available in Press Release (Commission), IP/99/872 (24.11.99).

The forecasts are that the EU economy will move into higher gear in the second half of 1999, as a result of an improved international environment and building on a domestic demand that has resisted the global slowdown. The improvement at the world level will, in 2000 and 2001, increasingly reinforce exports and investment, in the context of sustained private consumption. GDP is forecast to grow by 2.1% in 1999. Higher and more balanced economic growth is forecast for the two coming years, with annual growth rates of around 3% in each year. Inflation is expected to remain well below 2% in both 2000 and 2001, despite the adverse effects of higher oil prices. As regards both economic growth and inflation, the development among Member States is forecast to be more homogeneous than in 1999.

DG II of the European Commission has also published on 24 November 1999 the first issue of The EU Economy Review. This is a new publication, which will replace the Annual Economic Report. Responding to a growing demand for comprehensive economic information and analysis, the new publication provides an in-depth survey of economic developments and policy challenges facing the Union, the euro area and the Member States. In addition to evaluating the policy mix and the short-term economic outlook, the first issue of The EU Economy Review contains five thematic studies on key issues of the day: the origins of EU unemployment; tax-benefit systems and incentives to work; the long-term economic and budgetary implications of population ageing; price-level differences in the EU; European equity market developments. The EU Economy Review will be published as an issue of the printed journal European Economy. A web-based version in pdf format is available. A summary of the information in the report is available in Press Release (Commission), IP/99/871 (24.11.99).

Eurostat also issue a series of 'Statistics for Economic and Monetary Union (euro-zone) and European Union (EU 15)', which are regularly updated.

Equaivalent economic data on the applicant countries from Central and Eastern Europe can be found in European Economy: Supplement C: Economic Reform Monitor.

In addition to the EU forecasts other international organisations produce economic forecasts, which cover the EU and the wider Europe. For example, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development publish the Economic Outlook twice a year in June and November. Brief details of the November 1999 edition of the OECD Economic Outlook can be accessed on the Internet for a short period. OECD also publish annual Economic Surveys for all member and some non-member countries. Details of the contents of each volume and a brief synopsis of the information in the latest edition of each report are available.

The International Monetary Fund also provides economic forecast information: the latest edition of the IMF's World Economic Outlook issued in October 1999 can be accessed at: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/1999/02/index.htm for a limited period. This includes sections on Europe. Additional substantial economic data about individual countries throughout Europe can be found in the IMF's Country Information pages on the web.

Further information can be seen in:
(long-term access to these links cannot be guaranteed)

BBC News Online:
	24.11.99:	Bullish outlook for Europe's economy
The Guardian:
	24.11.99:	http://www.newsunlimited.co.uk/Breaking_News/International/0,3561,542683,00.html

Ian Thomson
Executive Editor, European Sources Online
Compiled: 27 November 1999
Last revised: 29 November 1999

On 24 November 1999 the European Commission issued its Autumn 1999 Economic Forecasts for the period 1999-2001. These forecasts are issued twice a year in the spring and autumn and present the Commission's macroeconomic predictions for the EU economy for the forthcoming two to three years.