European constitution campaigns. Yes or nein?

The unequal fight between supporters and opponents of the constitution

ONE question, published this week, will keep the prime minister awake at night once the tiresome business of the general election is over: “Should the United Kingdom approve the treaty establishing a constitution for the European Union?” Mr Blair will not have to face the answer until 2006. But if the voters say “no”, as opinion polls currently suggest they will, it could cost him his job. Worse, one senior civil servant reckons a “no” vote would bring on “the worst foreign policy crisis for Britain since Suez”.

Given this, the apparent slothfulness of the “yes” campaign is odd. The government has hired a PR firm to spread awareness of the joys of EU membership. In the country with the most Eurosceptic press on the continent, this will be tough; and its budget is a miserly £40,000 ($75,000).

The rest of the “yes” campaign is short of money, too. Britain in Europe (BIE), the main campaign group, had an income of just pounds 650,000 last year. Its staff has shrunk from 35 to only 16. After months of anonymous leadership, it has appointed Anthony Nelson to sell the constitution to the public. But Mr Nelson, a former Conservative MP who joined the Labour Party in 2001, is hardly a household name. Most high-profile Tory Europhiles are either sulking, after what they saw as Mr Blair's spineless acceptance of an unnecessary referendum; or staying quiet, so as to avoid embarrassing their increasingly Europhobic party in the run-up to an election.

A bigger problem for the “yes” campaign than either penury or lack of clout, though, comes from the collapse of enthusiasm among British businesses. When BIE was launched (to campaign for the adoption of the euro) it had intellectual and financial support from large multinational firms based in Britain. Now, Euro-gloom among businessmen even extends to the single market, supposedly the EU's proudest achievement. Back in 1998, 75% of British businessmen agreed that EU membership had benefited British business. But a recent survey of 451 senior executives conducted by Accenture, a consultancy, for the Royal Institute of International Affairs, found that only 32% of British businessmen agreed that “the single market has benefited my business,” a lower approval rate than from any EU country bar Italy.

Neil O'Brien, campaign director for Vote No, which is likely to act as an umbrella group for those hostile to the constitution, attributes this change to the increasing burden of EU regulation. Disappointment with the single market's apparent failure to stimulate growth in the euro-zone has also contributed to disenchantment. The result is that even American and Japanese businessmen are now more likely to extol the merits of the single market than the Brits.

The problems that the “no” campaign faces - over-zealousness and working out how best to spend all its money - are luxuries by comparison. Although the campaign has not, as Denis MacShane, the minister for Europe, claimed in a recent interview, been “spending literally hundreds of millions”, Vote No and its affiliates do have rich and committed backers. It has already started to use this advantage to influence floating voters.

Vote No reckons that hostility to the constitution is U-shaped. Older voters are the most hostile, often expressing a wish to withdraw from the EU altogether. Middle-aged voters, many of whom voted for British membership of the European Community in 1975, in the hope of heading off economic failure and isolation, are the least hostile to the constitution. Then opposition climbs again among younger voters. But, unlike the oldies, they tend not to favour total withdrawal from the EU.

Within this U-shape, there are enough undecided voters to offer hope to both sides. Vote No has identified women aged between 25 and 35, who are broadly supportive of Europe but worry about the constitution, as a key constituency. It has tailored its message accordingly, running an advert before “Bridget Jones: the Edge of Reason”, a film about an endearingly gormless diarist constantly pursued by good-looking men. The advert is fronted by a man with the high cheekbones and shoulder-length hair of an Italian footballer, who says “ 'yes' to Europe and 'no' to the constitution.” “We went on an office outing to see the film,” says Mr O'Brien, “and we found ourselves sitting right in the middle of our target audience.”

The “yes” campaign hopes to win over floating voters by pointing out that the constitution and Europe go together, and that a “yes” vote is more likely to preserve relations with Europe as they are already. The timing of referendums in other Eurosceptic countries is important here: if they come after Britain votes, that will help to create the impression that voting “no” will lead to isolation. The “yes” campaign also hopes to play the barmier end of British Euroscepticism against more moderate opponents of the constitution.

The fissile UK Independence Party should help them here. Its highest-profile member, the permatanned former television presenter Robert Kilroy-Silk, recently stalked out. The more airtime given to politicians like UKIP's deputy leader, Michael Nattrass - who recently compared Britain's position in the EU to Chechnya's within Russia, adding that “we will have to fight our way out ” - -the happier the “yes” campaign will be. “There is lots of mileage in pointing out that the hardcore 'no' voters are complete mentalists,” says a pro-European in a foreign policy think-tank.

To distance itself from the little-Englanders, Vote No plans to draft in Eurosceptics from elsewhere in Europe. In December, the various “no” campaigns held their first pan-European meeting in, er, Brussels. Vote No promises a parade of European businessmen and politicians from the EU's new member countries to persuade British voters to vote against the constitution. The “yes” campaign, meanwhile, will try hard to sound as patriotic as possible, raising the entertaining prospect of Europhile internationalists shunning anyone with a foreign-sounding surname or a funny accent, while British Eurosceptics defer to German businessmen.

If the government can wake the same anxieties about isolation last seen after the disastrous Suez expedition in 1956, the current weakness of the “yes” campaign may not matter. Certainly Mr Blair's advisers think that public opinion could be turned around in a couple of months, perhaps by using Britain's EU presidency this year to show off about how everything in Brussels is going Britain's way. But those all-important Bridget Joneses may have already made up their minds by then.

Major feature on the 'yes' and 'no' campaigns for the forthcoming referendum in the UK on the European Constitution.

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