German politics. Building problems

The Economist; 05 November 2005; (1174 words)

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Copyright 2005 The Economist Source: Financial Times Information Limited - Europe Intelligence Wire.

Angela Merkel's attempts to construct a grand coalition have run into trouble

HAVING difficulty comprehending Germany's political shenanigans? Consider Dresden's Frauenkirche, formally reconsecrated last weekend. Rebuilding this landmark Baroque church, which Allied bombers turned into rubble in 1945, has been a task of enormous complexity, spanning more than a decade. Although it may not take quite that long, putting together a "grand coalition" to run Germany after the election on September 18th is proving a similarly monumental task.

For days after the election, Chancellor Gerhard Schroder refused to admit defeat, even though his Social Democrats (SPD) had won fewer seats than Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) and her Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU). Yet he eventually yielded, a new cabinet drawn from both sides was agreed, a coalition deal was under construction - and the scene seemed set for Ms Merkel to be elected Germany's new chancellor on November 22nd.

But this week, two of the grand coalition's main architects resigned - at least partially. On October 31st Franz Muntefering, chairman of the SPD, announced that he would step down, after his party's executive committee had rejected his candidate for the SPD's number two position. A day later, Edmund Stoiber, leader of the CSU, declared that he would prefer to remain as Bavaria's premier, rather than joining Ms Merkel's government as economics minister. Yet both say they intend to continue leading their negotiation teams for the coalition - and Mr Muntefering still seems to want to be Ms Merkel's vice-chancellor and labour minister. The question now is whether the entire edifice of the grand coalition may collapse, meaning that the country could head for fresh elections, probably next March.

Even to insiders, this latest turn of events has come as a surprise. Germany had settled into a negotiation routine. The coalition-building machine seemed to be running relatively smoothly. Once or twice a week, the main delegations would meet to talk about the big picture. In between, 17 working groups would get together to hammer out more detailed proposals. In total, nearly 200 politicians have been directly involved.

Predictably, there were many leaks, which helped to fill the papers and create a sense of increasing controversy. But the emerging coalition's inner circle - which, besides Ms Merkel, Mr Stoiber and Mr Muntefering, includes Mr Schroder, Peer Steinbruck, the designated SPD finance minister, and Roland Koch, the CDU premier of Hesse - seemed to have developed a measure of trust and good working relations. Last week, the team planned to reduce the budget deficit. This week they agreed on a corporate-tax cut.

Yet just as the Frauenkirche needs strong pillars to support its dome, a grand coalition needs disciplined parties to support the government. In other words, the SPD cannot be both in government and in opposition. That is why Mr Muntefering insisted on installing his right-hand man, Kajo Wasserhovel, as the party's general secretary, rather than leaving this job to Andrea Nahles, unofficial leader of the party's left wing, who thinks that the SPD should be re-establishing its credentials as a people's party to improve its appeal and fend off the Left Party.

Although Mr Wasserhovel had been expected to win, on October 31st the party's executive committee voted 23 to 14 for Ms Nahles. Some certainly share her reasoning and rightly consider her a talented politician. Others were fed up with Mr Muntefering's increasingly autocratic leadership style. Yet others may simply not have realised that there would be such serious consequences. At all events, shortly after the vote, Mr Muntefering declared that he would not stand for re-election as party chairman at the SPD's next congress in mid-November.

Mr Muntefering's abrupt decision almost spun the party out of control. Most members of the executive board were in a visible state of shock: one resigned, and more are expected to follow. Only with the quick nomination of Matthias Platzeck, premier of Brandenburg, as candidate for SPD chairman, did a semblance of calm return. Even the CDU welcomed the choice of an eastern German premier who heads a grand coalition in his own state. He is popular without being populist and is widely touted as a prospective SPD chancellor of the future.

In the meantime, Mr Stoiber had announced his decision to stay in Bavaria - officially because he thinks that the SPD is no longer a reliable partner without Mr Muntefering, with whom he gets on well. But most see this as an excuse. Mr Stoiber has been in a huff ever since he failed to get the "super ministry" he wanted; after a series of petty power games he is no longer taken very seriously; and a battle over the succession in Bavaria threatens to split the CSU. After the dust settled, Michael Glos, head of the CSU's parliamentary group, emerged as its new pick to become economics minister.

Even if the turbulence passes, this week's events have made the birth of a grand coalition more difficult. The SPD's left wing has shown itself much less willing to accept compromises in order to stay in government. It is now a lot less likely that a grand coalition will attempt to go beyond mere repair work - such as reducing the budget deficit and reforming federalism - and tackle more far-reaching reforms. Optimists, however, argue that the in-fighting has reduced the SPD's chances at any new election, so it may yet prove readier to agree to a deal with Ms Merkel.

The pressure of time doesn't help. Next week will be crucial. The parties have set November 12th as an unofficial deadline for an agreement - just in time for the SPD's congress, which must endorse the grand coalition. But there is also pressure on Ms Merkel to reach a deal: she has scheduled a party conference on December 5th to discuss why the CDU did so much worse than expected on September 18th. If she has still not been elected chancellor by then, critics and rivals within the party might switch from support to attack. Many fault her personally for the disappointing result.

In more than one way, indeed, the CDU and the CSU see themselves as facing the same strategic challenge as the SPD: do they want to remain big-tent people's parties, or will they push for necessary but painful economic reforms that might strip away some of their backing? Ms Merkel, in both her person and her programme, stands for the second approach, but many in the party prefer the first. If the negotiations on a grand coalition fail and Germany heads for a new election, it is not even clear that she would again be the opposition candidate for chancellor.

If this week's events reveal anything, it is that Germany's mainstream parties are in their worst crisis since the war. Even though it will be painful, their best chance for a lasting comeback may be to form a grand coalition and make it work. Otherwise, even more voters will opt for the competition to their left and right.

Angela Merkel's attempts to construct a grand coalition have run into trouble.

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