Croatia and the European Union: A general problem

Why the European Union is unlikely to start membership talks with Croatia

EUROPEAN UNION governments see a general obstacle to starting membership talks with Croatia as planned on March 17th. The general is Ante Gotovina, wanted by the war-crimes tribunal in The Hague on charges of murdering 150 Serb civilians and expelling perhaps 150,000 in Croatia's war on Serbs in 1995. The obstacle is Croatia's reluctance to grab him. The tribunal's chief prosecutor, Carla Del Ponte, says that Croatia could do more. The suspicion is that Mr Gotovina, a national hero, has powerful protectors in Croatia's army and security services. It is less clear if his protectors are defying the government, or doing what part of it quietly wants.

Croatians seem to like the general more than they do the EU. Polls suggest that support for entry has fallen in the past year from around three-quarters of the population to less than half. It will surely fall further if the EU next week tells Croatia to go away, and come back only once it has met Mrs Del Ponte's demands. To soften the blow, it may suggest another date, perhaps in June, on which negotiations might start, or it may propose some purely formal preparatory discussions. But it may offer nothing face-saving at all.

The Croatians seem to have assumed that the EU would not allow a lone fugitive to hold up negotiations that would boost the recovery and stabilisation of the whole region. If so, they misread the mood. The Hague tribunal is due to wind up by 2010, which means finding and trying the most notorious suspects soon. The fear has been that wavering on Mr Gotovina would undercut hopes of driving out from hiding the two biggest remaining targets, Radovan Karadzic and Ratko Mladic. The evidence is that the EU's tough stance is working in Serbia.

If the Croatian government genuinely wants to pursue Mr Gotovina, but cannot compel its soldiers or spooks to do it, that scarcely helps. The EU expects a candidate country to meet international obligations. Rebellious state agencies are just another obstacle, not an excuse.

Even without this stand-off, Croatia's hopes of slipping quickly and easily into the EU were looking too optimistic. Its structural problems include a public sector, weighed down by inefficient state-owned industries, that spends more than half of GDP. Public debt has risen from under 30% of GDP in 1997 to more than 50% now. Taxes are high. Public health is poor. The courts are slow and erratic. Strict labour laws deter employment.

The government, which took office in late 2003, has a mere one-seat majority in parliament. Weak public support will make it harder to push through the painful reforms needed for EU entry. Getting Croatia out from under all that looks at least a five-year job. All the more reason to find the general and make an early start.

Article considers why the European Union is unlikely to start membership talks with Croatia.