Russia’s opposition. Pear-shaped

Russia's Victor Yushchenko? Not quite

“EVERYTHING is possible,” said Mikhail Kasyanov when, after criticising Russia's government a year after being sacked as prime minister by President Vladimir Putin, he was asked if he might run for the presidency in 2008. Compared with Mikhail Fradkov, his compliant and over-promoted successor, Mr Kasyanov is now remembered as an independent reformer, whose defenestration marked the final ascendancy in the Kremlin of the siloviki, or “power people”. Analogies have been drawn with Victor Yushchenko, once prime minister of Ukraine and now its president. Misplaced though these may be, the stir does point up two questions about Russia's liberal opposition.

Neither is whether Mr Kasyanov will be the next president. Everything may be possible in Russia, and Mr Putin's popularity has fallen slightly. Yet something huge would be needed to thwart his chosen successor in 2008 (Sergei Ivanov, the defence minister, is the current favourite) or, should he amend the constitution and stand for a third term, Mr Putin himself.

The first question is whether Russia's bickering liberal factions can unite and then spearhead a broad Ukraine-style opposition, with a view to the parliamentary poll in 2007, and perhaps the presidential elections in 2012 or 2016. A union between Yabloko and the Union of Right Forces (SPS), the two main liberal parties, has been mooted since 2003, when both fell short of the threshold for party-list representation in the Duma, or lower house of parliament. The merger's fruit, it is suggested, could be the “Pear” party.

Unfortunately, personal enmity obstructs such a deal, as do ideological divisions. Grigory Yavlinsky, Yabloko's leader, says SPS is “neo-conservative”, while his party is liberal-democratic. Mr Yavlinsky adds that Mr Kasyanov is linked to the “criminal privatisations” of the 1990s, as well as the already repressive policies of the first Putin term. On this view, Mr Kasyanov and some SPS leaders are part of a bigger problem: that, for many Russians, democracy and capitalism have become synonymous with chaos and corruption.

By contrast, Boris Nemtsov, an SPS leader who now advises Mr Yushchenko, thinks Mr Kasyanov could indeed emerge as leader of a broad democratic opposition. But SPS is divided over how friendly it should be to Mr Putin. More wrangles over a merger might end in an SPS split, not a deal with Yabloko.

The second, more depressing question is whether, even if the liberals united, anybody would notice. The emergence of a Russian middle class ought by now to be boosting the standing of parties sticking up for business-friendly policies, the sanctity of private property, and the independence of the media and the judiciary. But, some gloomy liberals conclude, in Russia economic empowerment has not brought with it such political expectations.

Even winning seats in the Duma, says Mr Yavlinsky, would count for little, such is the Kremlin's stranglehold. Given its grip on television, it would be hard for a new liberal leader to drum up support. Two candidates are Garry Kasparov, a chess champion turned anti-Putin campaigner, and Vladimir Ryzhkov, a courageously outspoken Duma deputy, but neither would find it easy to make a mark. As for Mikhail Khodorkovsky, ex-boss of the Yukos oil firm, who sponsored a range of political parties and was touted as a presidential contender, his trial is now reaching a less than suspenseful climax. It would be surprising if he were at liberty in 2008.

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