British politics after the votes

Britain's Tony Blair will not mourn the passing of his planned referendum

LUCKY indeed is the politician who is saved from the consequences of his rashest decisions. Just over a year ago, at a moment of great political vulnerability, Tony Blair, taking most of his cabinet by surprise, announced that Britain would hold a referendum on the European Union constitution. The idea was to neutralise the issue before the European elections a few weeks later. Mr Blair was desperate to avoid a result that would lend weight to the idea that he had become an electoral liability.

It worked, up to a point. The opposition Tories, deprived of their best theme - the government's arrogant refusal to consult the people on a matter that would change how Britain was governed - did badly, losing ground to the anti-European UK Independence Party. From that moment, the fear that Labour under Mr Blair would lose the general election the following year more or less evaporated. But it soon became apparent that Mr Blair might have paid a high price for his short-term survival.

Unlike the vote on joining the euro, this seemed to be a referendum that could not be avoided. And although Mr Blair spoke confidently of relishing the chance to dispel myths propagated by the Tories and the anti-European press, the truth, admitted in private, was that he had no such confidence. Shaken by an election win that was much less emphatic than he had expected, Mr Blair's hopes of winning a referendum next year looked slim. Worse still, polling evidence suggested that his own presence at the head of the yes campaign would doom it. Had the French and Dutch not halted the constitution in its tracks, the unpleasant choice facing Mr Blair was: either to step aside before the referendum, or to resign in the aftermath of a personally humiliating defeat.

Against that prospect, the theory that Mr Blair would still like the chance of a fight to end Britain's historical ambiguity towards Europe is far-fetched. So too is the notion that, win or lose, the referendum would have given him an excuse for stepping down and handing over to Gordon Brown. Mr Blair is most unlikely to carry out his threat to serve a full term before retiring, but given the option of being forced out next year and going somewhat later at a time of his own choosing, there's not much doubt which he would prefer.

As for the Tories, being deprived of a referendum would be both good news and bad news. The bad news is that whoever succeeds Michael Howard later this year will lose the opportunity to land a heavy blow on the government. The good news is that, if momentum towards further integration is permanently stalled, Europe should cease to be a big issue in British politics. That may allow the Tories at last to escape their debilitating obsession with Europe and get on with the bigger job of making themselves a party fit for government.

Both Tony Blair and the Conservatives may benefit from the rejection of the European Constitution in the referendums in France and the Netherlands, May-June 2005.

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