Luxembourg and the European Union. A hollow victory

The grand duchy says yes, but the European Union constitution is still dead

THERE were only 25,000 votes in it. But at least Jean-Claude Juncker, prime minister of Luxembourg, won his referendum on July 10th to approve the draft European Union constitution, by 57% to 43%. Mr Juncker, who served as EU president until the end of June, promptly hailed the vote as “every bit as important as those in France and the Netherlands.” Sadly for him, this is as incorrect as his earlier claims that the French and Dutch voters had not, in fact, rejected the constitution.

Luxembourg, a founder member of the EU with a long integrationist belief, is both the richest member of the club and also, thanks to its hosting of various EU institutions, the biggest net recipient per head of EU money. For it to say no to any EU treaty seems unthinkable. Yet even so it may have taken the threat of resignation by Mr Juncker, whose popularity was boosted by his run-in with Britain over the EU budget at last month's summit, to ward off a no vote.

The impact on the rest of Europe, and on the eventual fate of the constitution, will surely be small. Mr Juncker had sought to play down the French and Dutch rejections by arguing that “if we were to add up all of those who wanted 'more Europe' as a yes, then I think that we would have had a yes vote.” The president of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso, made a similarly valiant attempt to use the Luxembourg vote to create momentum for the constitution by noting that a majority of EU members has now approved it.

Yet only two countries have done so through referendums (Spain is the other). And other countries that had planned referendums, such as Denmark, Ireland, Poland and the Czech Republic, as well as Britain, have put them off indefinitely. Belgium and Estonia may yet ratify the constitution by a parliamentary vote, but few others will follow.

What is true is that a no vote in Luxembourg would have buried the constitution for ever. The yes may just keep alive the faintest hope that the EU might somehow reconsider the constitution in a few years' time. Yet even the Belgian prime minister, Guy Verhofstadt, has spoken of its being cryogenically frozen. It will take more than a few plucky Luxembourgeois to defrost it.

Despite the yes vote in Luxembourg the EU Constitution is still dead.