The Baltic States. Wartime blues

A 60th anniversary reopens old wounds

WHEN President George Bush visits Latvia, and then the Netherlands, Russia and Georgia, between May 6th and May 10th, his role, says the White House, will be to “honour the shared sacrifice of millions of Americans and Europeans to defeat tyranny, and mark the growth of democracy”. In fact, these tasks will be divided in two. The defeat of Hitler 60 years ago will be remembered at ceremonies in the Netherlands and Russia on May 8th and 9th. That leaves the growth of democracy to be celebrated in Latvia on the way in, and Georgia on the way out. In Russian eyes, these latter two choices smack of provocation. They are Moscow's least favourite neighbours, and also the liveliest critics of its lingering imperialist twitches.

Indeed, if the “growth of democracy” in Europe is threatened by any single country today, central Europeans would unhesitatingly point to Russia as the most serious culprit - both for its attempts to block free elections in Ukraine last year and for its support of rebel regimes that have carved out bits of Georgia and Moldova. It has been trying to undermine the stability of the Baltic countries with propaganda and bullying ever since they initiated the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1990-91, and then got rid of their last Russian military bases three years later. Mr Bush's choice of itinerary could be seen as a salute to Russia's wartime past, but also a reproach to its not-quite-peaceful present.

The Balts, along with Poland, have already cast a cloud over the planned Victory Day celebrations in Moscow on May 9th, by questioning Russia's view of its history. The three Baltic presidents say they are eager to celebrate the defeat of Nazism, but not the 50-year Soviet occupation of their countries that went with it. President Vaira Vike-Freiberga of Latvia has accepted an invitation to Red Square; but President Arnold Ruutel of Estonia and President Valdas Adamkus of Lithuania have declined. Poland's president, Aleksander Kwasniewski, says he will go, but he wants Russia to condemn the pre-war Molotov-Ribbentrop pact under which Stalin and Hitler divided Poland between them, and also to acknowledge the post-war sufferings of countries under communism.

Such arguments over history are poisoning wider relations. Last week the Russian ambassador to Lithuania called his host country a “nation of scandal-mongers” where “everyone is dirty”. Earlier, the Russian foreign ministry said that Poland was being “dishonest” in tearing “historical events out of [their] context”. To the Baltic countries, this is not a matter of history alone. Rightly or wrongly, they fear that Russia still wants to dominate them - and that, unless it renounces its Soviet past, its imperialist instincts will remain strong. The Poles fear similarly for Ukraine, which they are keen to pull out of Russia's sphere of influence and, one day, safely into the European Union.

Russia has tried to exploit the fears of Balts and Poles to undermine them in the eyes of their new EU partners. It calls them “Russophobes”, obsessed with making trouble for Russia, and with trying to twist EU policy accordingly. Certainly, few old EU members seem to share the new ones' worries. After meeting President Vladimir Putin at a summit with the leaders of Germany and Spain on March 18th, President Jacques Chirac of France said, with no apparent irony, that Europe's relations with Russia held the “keys to peace, democracy and the rule of law...on our continent”.

But to the Balts' and Poles' intense relief, America seems to be coming round to their line, both figuratively and literally. They admired Mr Bush's chiding of Russia for backsliding on democracy when he met Mr Putin in Bratislava in February. His flying visits to Latvia and Georgia will be huge morale-boosters. Georgia especially needs hand-holding. Its stability is under constant threat, and European governments which applauded its “rose revolution” in 2003 have given it little help since.

The Balts are in better shape, but their governments are weak - Estonia lost another last week - and lacking in vision. Latvia and Estonia both need a quiet nudge towards enfranchising their Russian minorities, left after the Soviet occupation, whose continuing (if largely self-induced) statelessness allows Russia to pose as their best protector. Perhaps only an American president could make that point in Riga, and still be seen as a friend, not a critic.

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