Turkey and the EU: Reason to worry

The country with most to lose from the EU referendums may be Turkey

WHAT do the French and Dutch rejections of the European Union constitution imply for Turkey's hopes of joining? If one believes the country's political leaders, nothing. “This result has nothing to do with Turkey's candidacy, we will continue on our path with the same enthusiasm,” the Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, told parliament this week. His rhetoric was echoed by EU officials. And in theory they are right.

The constitution makes no reference to Turkey's membership. In France (as in some other anti-Turkey countries, notably Austria) voters have been promised the chance to stop Turkey joining in a separate referendum on further enlargement, when the time comes. Moreover, last December's decision by EU leaders to promise Turkey the start of membership talks on October 3rd was a political one that can be changed only by consensus of all 25 EU members. Some optimists even venture to suggest that the defeat of the constitution could pave the way for a looser EU that it would be easier for Turkey to fit into.

Yet the reality is more worrying for Turkey. The French and Dutch noes may be “the EU's internal problem”, as Mr Erdogan claims. But they also reflect growing hostility around Europe to further enlargement of the EU - and, specifically, to the idea of taking in poor, big and Muslim Turkey. There is also a good chance that Germany's opposition Christian Democrats (CDU) will win the election expected in September. The CDU leader, Angela Merkel, is firmly opposed to Turkey's membership and has lobbied instead for a “privileged partnership” that has been roundly rejected by the Turks. Her hostility to full membership for Turkey is shared by France's Nicolas Sarkozy, a would-be presidential candidate in 2007.

Against this gloomy background, the wisest course for Turkey, according to the EU ambassador to Ankara, Hansjorg Kretschmer, is to ignore the ructions in Europe and focus on implementing the sweeping reforms that earned it the precious October date for talks. In one hopeful sign, Mr Erdogan last week appointed Ali Babacan, his young and pragmatic economy minister, to head the EU negotiations. Turkey is also about to sign a protocol extending its customs union with the EU to the ten new members that joined last year, including Cyprus.

This week a long-delayed new penal code came into effect. But despite such radical provisions as making marital rape a crime, the code also contains several controversial articles - for example one that allows long prison terms for journalists who attack the Turkish military presence in northern Cyprus or describe as “genocide” the mass slaughter of Armenians during the first world war.

There are, indeed, disturbing signs that Mr Erdogan may be pandering to a recent upsurge in nationalism that is being fanned both by anti-Turkish sentiment in Europe and by the country's hawkish generals, whose power may be eroded by EU reforms. Besides continued police harassment of Christians and other minorities, last month an appeal court in Ankara upheld the banning of Turkey's biggest teachers' union because it had said that the country's 14m Kurds should be able to educate their children in their mother tongue. Turkish academics had to cancel a conference to debate the Armenian tragedy after the justice minister, Cemil Cicek, accused them of “knifing Turkey in the back”.

Mr Cicek's outburst, concluded one senior EU diplomat, was “confirmation that the government no longer believes in the EU process.” That view may be exaggerated, but there is disillusion with the EU among Mr Erdogan's conservative base. One example is perceived European indifference to restrictions on the Islamic headscarf. It was surely with his conservative base in mind that Mr Erdogan last week introduced legislation to reduce penalties for those who run underground courses to teach the Koran. The move brought renewed charges from Turkey's fierce secularists that Mr Erdogan's real intention is to move the country closer to an Islamic theocracy, and not to the EU. Turkey's many enemies in Europe would surely take pleasure in that.

Will the 'no' vote in referendums in France and the Netherlands on the European Constitution harm Turkey's chances to join the EU.