The gates to the Union remain open … just

Author (Person)
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Series Details Vol.11, No.38, 27.10.05
Publication Date 27/10/2005
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Date: 27/10/05

Reporting this week on Bulgaria and Romania's readiness for EU membership, the European Commission did not explicitly recommend whether they should join on 1 January 2007 or only in 2008, but between the lines its report suggests that an accession in 2007 is still possible.

The Commission's monitoring report leaves the field open for EU government leaders to decide next spring whether they want to delay the two countries' entry. Another Commission report will be published in April/May, which is likely to make a firm recommendation on the date.

Officially, the reason why the Commission is being coy about the accession date, despite initial expectations that it would make a recommendation this month, is that it is too early to pronounce now, 14 months before the planned accession.

Unofficially, the reason is that the Commission wants to maintain pressure on the two candidate states, so that they do not slacken off their preparations after they have heard the verdict.

But there are another two reasons why the Commission prefers not to recommend an accession date now. Enlargement being a sensitive matter in the current political climate in Europe, the Commission wants to leave the door open for the member states to postpone the accession of the two countries, if they wish, next year.

A senior official in the European Parliament said: "The Commission is clearly avoiding taking a clear position in favour of a new wave of enlargement in 2007, following the failed referenda [on the EU constitution] in France and the Netherlands and the arrival of a centre-right chancellor in Berlin, whose party talks tough on enlargement.

"Even if the Commission believed the two should join in 2007, it would probably not say it now, to avoid raising expectations in the candidate countries and political problems in some present member states."

But the Commission does not, in fact, believe that the present state of preparedness of the two countries would allow them to join in 2007. One official said that if the Commission had to recommend a date now, it would probably not recommend 2007, since it could not take for granted that the two would maintain the pace of reform. "We saw what happened in Bulgaria this year: the rhythm of reforms slowed down considerably," he observed.

Some members of the Parliament believe that it might be possible to find a compromise between postponing Bulgaria and Romania's entry and keeping the 2007 date: by letting them in in July 2007. "It would be a typical EU compromise - right in the middle. And it was done for the ten [newest member states] too: they joined on 1 May [2004]," one MEP said.

But Commission officials believe it would not make sense to delay accession by just six months, if a decision was made to postpone their entry. "It's either 2007 or 2008. Moreover, it's always more complicated for the financial arrangements if they join during the year and not at the beginning...I think we would not recommend that," one said.

The Commission told Bulgaria and Romania that they would have to work hard, if they wanted to be able to join the EU on time. It has identified several sectors where the two need to take urgent action to qualify for EU membership (see box).

The issues of "serious concern" for the Commission cover approximately 10% of the acquis communautaire [body of EU law] areas and "without immediate action Romania and Bulgaria will most likely not be able to fulfil their obligations in those specific areas by 1 January 2007", the report says.

The report points out that "Romania and Bulgaria hold the key to their accession on time". It would indeed be their own fault if they missed it. And the political climate in some of the present member states could help them fail.

More work needed

Both countries

  • Enforcement of intellectual property rules to tackle wholesale piracy and counterfeiting
  • Setting up institutions to pay out rural development funds and farm subsidies
  • The adoption of the necessary veterinary legislation, in particular implementing rules to prevent BSE
  • Improving border infrastructure and training staff
  • Stepping up fight against corruption and fraud

Bulgaria

  • Enforcement of rules on motor vehicle insurance, the capacity to treat animal waste, enforcement of animal welfare standards and curbing organised crime

Romania

  • Improvement of public procurement rules, computerisation to fit with EU tax IT system, enforcment of rules on pollution.

The European Commission on 25 October 2005 published the Comprehensive Monitoring Reports on Romania's and Bulgaria's preparations for accession to the EU. Author suggests that for several reasons the Commission preferred not to recommend an accession date. Accession of the two countries was scheduled for 2007 but could be delayed by Member States by one year.

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Related Links
European Commission: Press Release: IP/05/1344, Bulgaria and Romania move closer to accession goal, 25.10.05 http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=IP/05/1344&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en
European Commission: SEC(2005)1352: Bulgaria - 2005 Comprehensive Monitoring Report http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/archives/pdf/key_documents/2005/sec1352_cmr_master_bg_college_en.pdf
European Commission: SEC(2005)1354: Romania - 2005 Comprehensive Monitoring Report http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/archives/pdf/key_documents/2005/sec1354_cmr_master_ro_college_en.pdf
European Commission: Memo: MEMO/05/395, Key findings of the 2005 Comprehensive Monitoring Reports on Bulgaria and Romania, 25.10.05 http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=MEMO/05/395&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=fr