Russian government: Here today, gone tomorrow

Date: 28/02/04

Why did Vladimir Putin dismiss his government?

IT IS said of Vladimir Putin that he never takes a decision before he has to. So why has the Russian president just fired the prime minister, Mikhail Kasyanov, and his entire government? After his re-election on March 14th and later inauguration, they would have had to resign anyway. It is surely not to save time. Although forming a new government can take a month - the president names a prime minister, parliament approves him, and he selects a cabinet, with time quotas for each stage - Mr Putin has the power to ram it all through in days if he so chooses.

Much reading of tea-leaves has ensued. Mr Putin hinted at several reasons in his short announcement: he wanted to “avoid uncertainties” by defining the new government early - perhaps a sign that he wants to cut short infighting for the job of prime minister. He said the Russian people “have a right to and ought to know” who will be running the country with him, suggesting that he may want to give the new team legitimacy by tying it to his re-election.

Mr Putin's move could at least add interest to an election that looks increasingly pointless. Several candidates are discussing a pull-out, in protest at bias in the media and the election commission. Some polls suggest that turnout might not reach the 50% required by law.

As Mr Putin put it, his decision was “dictated by the desire once again to set out my position on the course that the country's development will take” after the election. That line, delivered with an unusual sternness, looked like a clear “I'm-in-charge” message.

Recent months have seen turbulent confrontations between the Kremlin and Yukos, an oil company whose now-jailed ex-boss, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, had used his financial clout to win political influence. The Yukos affair had caused visible splits within the Kremlin, with Mr Kasyanov especially unhappy. Mr Putin may have simply wanted to show - to voters (who seem to like a strong president), to bureaucrats, to the parliament elected in December, and to the surviving “oligarchs ” - that he is firmly in control.

What he means to do with his ever-tightening control will be clearer when he names a new prime minister. Will it be a placeman of the siloviki - literally the wielders of power, in other words the heads of the defence and security forces? Or will it be somebody closer to the interests of the business tycoons who, despite their recent skirmishes with the authorities, are still the Kremlin's only effective rivals for real power in Russia? Mr Kasyanov, who had held the job since Mr Putin's first election four years ago, was the last remnant from Boris Yeltsin's administration, and also the oligarchs' friend. He had been the most public critic of the handling of the Yukos affair.

By the time The Economist went to press, Mr Putin had not announced a permanent replacement. The man named as acting prime minister, Viktor Khristenko, is a neutral figure: a bureaucrat with no ties either to the pro-business clan or to the siloviki. He may be no more than a caretaker. Other front-runners include Sergei Ivanov, defence minister and arch-silovik, who, says Igor Bunin of the Centre for Political Technologies, could be a presidential successor. Alexei Kudrin, the finance minister, would be an experienced and safe pair of hands, and, judging by his recent behaviour, might heed Mr Putin's desire to keep the oligarchs at arms' length. At the same time, naming him or one of his more reformist colleagues, says Nikolai Petrov of the Carnegie Endowment in Moscow, would show that Mr Putin is, at least for now, keeping the siloviki away from the economic levers of government.

Why did Russia President Putin dismiss his government?