France: When angry voters hit back

Date: 27/03/04

The French regional elections confirm the deep unpopularity of most European governments. First, a look at France; then at Germany

“BYE-BYE Raffarin”, purred Libération; “Adieu Raffarin”, chimed in Le Nouvel Observateur, another left-leaning title. Assuming that French voters confirm their first-round battering of President Jacques Chirac's ruling centre-right party in this weekend's second-round elections for 22 regional councils, Jean-Pierre Raffarin's days as prime minister must be numbered. Even if he stays, the chances of his government pressing ahead with its ambitious reform programme now look doubtful.

The governing Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) party had expected a knock in the first round on March 21st, but it was taken aback by its scale. The biggest surprise was the swing to the left. Ever since the humiliation of April 2002, when the Socialist candidate, Lionel Jospin, was evicted in the first round of the presidential election by the National Front leader, Jean-Marie Le Pen, the left has been groping unsuccessfully for a convincing programme, leader and purpose. But the voters have been forgiving. The Socialists, Greens and Communists notched up 40% between them, up from 37% at the 2002 parliamentary poll. By contrast, the UMP, along with its centre-right sister, the Union for French Democracy (UDF), scraped together just 34%, well below the 47% legislative score of the UMP alone in 2002.

Polls suggest that the left will beat the right by as much as 46% to 36% in the second round. Stephane Rozes, at CSA, a polling organisation, predicts that the left will recapture six or seven of the 14 regions now held by the right. Although they have limited powers, the regions carry symbolic value. In Britanny, an agricultural bastion of the right untroubled by big-city anxieties, the combined left grabbed a hefty 48%. Worse, the left did almost as well in Mr Raffarin's own backyard, Poitou-Charentes: Segolene Royal, a Socialist parliamentarian whose partner, Franois Hollande, is the party's secretary-general, scooped up 46% to the UMP's 33%. In short, these elections are set to be a crushing humiliation for Mr Chirac and Mr Raffarin.

How lasting will this shift prove to be? Its impulse does not come from a coherent, rejuvenated left. Even leading Socialists admitted beforehand that their party was in disarray. It stems instead from an unusual mix of circumstances: pre-arranged unity among the three left-leaning parties; an appeal for an “efficient vote”, which contained the far left; a strong mobilisation of younger voters; and the whiff of possibility after the Socialists' unexpected victory in Spain's general election.

The UMP, already numbed by the conviction of Alain Juppé, its boss, for political corruption, was also squeezed by division on the right. It failed to secure the loyalty of the UDF, whose leader, Franois Bayrou, was stubbornly convinced of his own chances in the Aquitaine region. Instead, he was pushed into third place, as were other UDF lone-rangers. Voters are now expected suddenly to believe in the two parties' undying love for each other, as they join forces in the second round. Confusion, if not disillusion, prevails.

Equally important was the far right. It is a measure of how entrenched the National Front has become that its 15% first-round score, a robust performance for any third force and disquieting for an unapologetically anti-immigrant party, was met with relief. The far right may not stand a chance of winning a region, and its score was a notch below the 17% won by Mr Le Pen in the 2002 presidential election. But far-right parties combined took 28% of the vote in Alsace; and the Front alone got 23% in Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur. In Orange, Provence, where elections to departmental councils were also held, it scored 40%; in Carpentras, 37%. And it enters the second round as sole third party in no fewer than 17 regions; in one, Nord-Pas-de-Calais, it beat the UMP into third place.

Where does all this leave the government? The overwhelming message is of voters' disgruntlement. Part of this is cyclical: the economy is near-stagnant and unemployment remains high (9.6%, and 21% among under-25s). But part of it stems from the government's clumsy failure to explain clearly what it is doing. Mr Raffarin had promised a reform programme, “Agenda 2006”. So far, he has implemented only one element: pension reform. Next on the list is a health-insurance overhaul, to rein in soaring costs. After lengthy consultation, proposals are being drawn up. Labour-market and education reforms are due to follow.

At first glance, the chances of any of these happening now look slim. Flush with victory, the left will be emboldened for confrontation. Protesters against budget cuts quickly take to the streets, the latest being researchers and scientists. Stung by the charge from the left that it has not done enough to heal the fracture sociale, the government will find it hard to push painful reforms. Anyway Mr Chirac is a survivor, not a reformer, and he will tolerate an unpopular prime minister only so far.

Hence the speculation over who might replace Mr Raffarin. Candidates range from Hervé Gaymard, the farm minister, to Michele Alliot-Marie, the defence minister. Even if Mr Raffarin were to hang on until the next potential humiliation, the European elections in June - which might enable him to push through health reforms - a reshuffle is likely. It is widely understood that Francis Mer, the finance minister, has had enough in an impossible job.

There is, however, an alternative that would carry with it the bet that popularity and reform are not incompatible: the appointment of Nicolas Sarkozy, the omnipresent interior minister, who has made no secret of his desire to succeed Mr Chirac. This week, all quarters of the UMP, whose barons distrust the man precisely for this ambition, were hiring him to boost flagging campaigns. Even the president's wife, Bernadette, borrowed him in Correze, where she was re-elected as a departmental councillor.

Mr Sarkozy's popularity is not in doubt: he was elected to a departmental council this week, bagging 79% of the vote in Neuilly, a suburb of Paris where he was formerly mayor. Nor is his determination to take action, whether popular or not. “The French people are demanding that we go faster,” he declared this week. That may be a heroic conclusion to draw from a swing to the left. But, even if he is correct, the question remains: is Mr Chirac ready to gamble by picking a man whose success in the job could threaten his own?

The French regional elections in March 2004 confirmed the deep unpopularity of most European governments. This article examines the situation in France.

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