Charlemagne. The making of a president

An increasingly desperate search for a European Commission boss

"IT'S quite a good job, so they tell me, I'm sure we can find somebody to take it,” joked Bertie Ahern, the Irish prime minister, after last week's European Union summit had failed to agree on a new president of the European Commission. Mr Ahern and the other 24 EU leaders were perhaps lucky that they had managed to strike a deal on the new constitution. For that allowed them to gloss over a huge, acrimonious and inconclusive row about who should have the Union's most senior job. The argument over the commission presidency was not only unseemly. It also showed that, despite the hard-won consensus over the constitution, bitter rivalries still plague the EU.

The main quarrel took place over dinner in Brussels on June 17th, with the presidential ambitions of Guy Verhofstadt, the Belgian prime minister, colliding with those of Chris Patten, a British European commissioner. It quickly degenerated into a power struggle between a Franco-German camp and a rival group led by Britain and Italy. Mr Verhofstadt's claims were pushed fiercely by Jacques Chirac, the French president, and Gerhard Schroder, the German chancellor. Mr Chirac has been increasingly dismayed by the inability of the Franco-German duo to continue getting its way in an enlarged EU of 25 countries. Instead of reconsidering his tactics, his reaction has been to push even harder. As it became clear that Mr Verhofstadt did not have the votes, the French president became more and more indignant, accusing smaller countries who were sitting on the fence of moral cowardice, and threatening the Italians with a serious deterioration in bilateral relations. Mr Schroder was also cross, reminding other leaders that Germany remains the biggest contributor to the EU budget. This flexing of Franco-German muscle only stiffened the others' resistance.

The spectre of Iraq also had a seat at the dining table. France, Germany and Belgium were all in the anti-war camp; Britain, Italy, Poland and Portugal, all of whom opposed Mr Verhofstadt, supported the war. But although the Belgian prime minister could not garner enough votes, neither could Mr Patten, despite the endorsement of the dominant centre-right political group in the European Parliament. Mr Chirac made it clear that he could not accept a British candidate. His ostensible reason is that Britain is a member of neither Europe's single currency nor the Schengen border-free zone, both of which are run by the commission. But his deep resentment of the British role in rallying opposition to Franco-German dominance was also crucial.

Sorting out this mess will test the much-praised diplomatic powers of Mr Ahern. The Irish say that they would like an agreement before the end of the month, when the Dutch take over the EU presidency. If agreement is in sight, a special summit will be called. Yet finding a name remains fiendishly hard. Anyone acceptable to France is instantly suspect in Britain, and vice versa. A further complication is added by the insistence of the new European Parliament, which convenes on July 20th, that it must approve the new president. This probably rules out otherwise plausible Socialists, such as Antonio Vitorino, the Portuguese commissioner, or Javier Solana, the EU's foreign-policy chief.

The names still in the hat do not inspire. There is Jean-Claude Juncker, prime minister of Luxembourg, whom many shrewd observers have long assumed would ultimately emerge as an inoffensive compromise. He is on the centre-right and is respected by his colleagues. The British are wary of his closeness to France and Germany, but see him as more of a conciliator than Mr Verhofstadt. However, Mr Juncker has just been re-elected as prime minister of the Grand Duchy, and has promised his voters that he would not move swiftly on to Brussels. Against all expectations, he seems likely to keep his word.

Other centre-right names being floated include those of the prime ministers of Portugal, Denmark and Austria, and the French foreign minister. José Duro Barroso of Portugal has an interesting political biography: once a Maoist student leader, he is now a staunch economic liberal and Atlanticist. But his support for the Iraq war may have been too fervent for the French to stomach. Anders Fogh Rasmussen of Denmark falls foul of the Franco-German reluctance to accept a president from a country that has not adopted the euro; Wolfgang Schussel, the Austrian chancellor, is mistrusted for having once formed a coalition with the far-right. Michel Barnier, the French foreign minister, has a courteous and amiable style that makes a pleasant contrast with Mr Chirac's. But he is derided even by senior French officials as an intellectual lightweight (one particularly haughty one labels Mr Barnier le cretin des Alpes, a reference to the fact that he made his reputation organising the winter Olympics in 1992). He might also fall victim to the poisonous state of Franco-British relations.

The luck of the Irish

That leaves a plethora of Irish candidates. Pat Cox, outgoing president of the European Parliament, has not won support. A new name in the ring is Peter Sutherland, a perennial previous candidate who was once EU competition commissioner and first boss of the World Trade Organisation. But he has been out of Brussels for a long time, and his chairmanship of two archetypal Anglo-Saxon capitalist groups, BP and Goldman Sachs (albeit only in Europe), could make him a hard sell in France and Germany.

If Mr Ahern looks in the mirror, the answer stares him in the face. The Irish prime minister comes from the centre-right and has burnished his reputation during the Irish presidency. The French might hesitate about a candidate who does not speak their language and is close to Mr Blair, but they recognise that at least Mr Ahern has dealt fairly with them. Bertie, as he is always known, seems genuinely reluctant to swap Dublin for Brussels. But he might find it hard to resist a concerted effort to draft him. Chairing the meeting that ends in his being dragged to the EU's top job might be a fitting end to an eventful presidency.

Commentary feature. An increasingly desperate search for a European Commission head. The article surveys the possible candidates.

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