Italian elections: Prodi’s problem

Both main political leaders did badly

ONE loser in the European elections was a former professor who was not even running. The president of the European Commission, Romano Prodi, in effect led the centre-left campaign in Italy. The thinking was that he would formally take up the leadership of the opposition when his European job ends in November, and then lead a broad coalition rather like 2001's Olive Tree into the next Italian general election, due by 2006. But, after a lacklustre showing by the centre-left, that plan looks rather less clever than it did.

Mr Prodi's followers had hoped to exploit the prestige that attaches to a top Italian Eurocrat in a country that is fervently, often uncritically, pro-EU, by taking at least 33% of the vote. In the event, the centre-left scooped up only 31% - less than in the 2001 general or the 1999 European elections. One reason may have been that it bungled over Iraq by arguing for an immediate withdrawal of Italian troops, just at the moment when America and Britain were winning unanimous support for a new UN Security Council resolution. Another may have been that, to keep up the pretence of not being directly involved, Mr Prodi spent most of the campaign outside Italy, wrapping up his messages to voters in Euro-speak.

But a different interpretation may be that voters are going cold on the affable, yet less than electrifying, Mr Prodi. In regional and municipal elections held at the same time as the European ones, the parties in his alliance won a more respectable 34%. And the left did conspicuously well in Rome, whose mayor, Walter Veltroni, is one of the few credible alternatives to Mr Prodi as leader of the opposition. Mr Veltroni is widely thought to have done a good job running Italy's chaotic capital. Even some of those making protestations of loyalty to Mr Prodi are privately expressing interest in the “Veltroni effect”.

None of this is particularly good news for Silvio Berlusconi, the Italian prime minister. His Forza Italia party slumped to 21%, from 25% in 1999, and he had made the election a referendum on himself. Yet many of his fellow government leaders in Europe did worse; and his coalition partners actually did better than they had done in 1999. The message for both Mr Prodi and Mr Berlusconi is: “we like your friends, we're just not sure about you.”