The French Socialist Party. Sauce Hollandaise

A reinvigorated party is still in search of a forceful leader

SIX months ago, party hacks were urging Franois Hollande, the French Socialist leader, to roll up his sleeves and impose himself more. He resisted, preferring a low-profile, collegial style. Today, this approach seems to have paid off. Fresh from two electoral victories, at regional and European elections, Mr Hollande has, improbably, become what the French call presidentiable. With a photogenic partner, Segolene Royal, also fresh from a regional election win, could he turn an unexpected triumph into a lasting swing to the left?

Two years ago, the Socialists were in shock after the eviction of Lionel Jospin in the first round of the 2002 presidential election by the National Front leader, Jean-Marie Le Pen. Mr Hollande was seen as a caretaker, with no chances of his own in the 2007 presidential election. He was doomed, as a colleague put it, by “his absolute lack of charisma”. Like Britain's Labour Party after 1979, the Socialists faced the rise of the hard left outside the party, and a rejection of centrists such as Laurent Fabius and Dominique Strauss-Kahn within. Officials talked of a structural shift to the political extremes.

Today, Mr Hollande has a spring in his step, and party headquarters hums with new energy. For the first time in two years, it believes it can win in 2007, and Mr Hollande is preparing the ground. In September, a policy commission starts work on a manifesto. In early 2006, party members will elect a presidential candidate. Despite his low personal popularity, “Hollande is now considered a serious contender,” says one insider.

Mr Hollande has other assets. His long-term partner, Ms Royal, delivered a snub to Jean-Pierre Raffarin, the prime minister, by winning the presidency of his region, Poitou-Charentes. Though affable and humorous in private, Mr Hollande has an insipid public image. But Ms Royal's victory has fleshed him out; together they make a power couple. Nor should Mr Hollande's low popularity be taken for granted. He may be a classic urbane technocrat: he and Ms Royal were fellow students at the Ecole Nationale d'Administration. Yet he is a member of parliament for rural Correze, President Jacques Chirac's heartland, and mayor of a town there, so he may be more attuned to the grass-roots than he seems.

The Socialists' recent electoral success came largely by default, however. Mr Hollande persuaded the electorate to vote tactically, robbing the hard left of support, and he kept the left broadly united. But his campaign message was negative: essentially, kick the government in the teeth. “It isn't enough just to wait till 2007,” he concedes. “We must lead a campaign for our ideas.” But what ideas? Mr Hollande's insistence on collegiality is a recipe for blandness. The manifesto process is not designed to foster bold thinking or leadership; the candidate must adopt it wholesale. This means policies tilted to the left.

Mr Hollande defends the 35-hour week. He is unapologetic about the manifesto. “The Socialist Party is a co-operative, it cannot impose a programme,” he says. The process, he adds, is designed to stop personal rivalries dividing the party. But consensus-seeking annoys some. “He's indecisive, wants to please everyone,” comments one adviser. He is pro-European, but has not decided whether to back the new EU constitution, which many Socialists consider too free-market. Tellingly, he has never had a ministerial job.

Who else might unite the party? Candidates abound. The two heavyweights, Mr Fabius and Mr Strauss-Kahn, are among the least popular, though both have strong rival camps in the party. The most popular - Bernard Kouchner, Jack Lang and Bertrand Delano - have a less firm grip on the party, though Mr Delano is a well-liked mayor of Paris. Martine Aubry, architect of the 35-hour week and mayor of Lille, has been quiet, but could try a come-back. So might Mr Jospin, whose recent visibility belies claims to be in retirement.

There is, though, another possibility closer to home: Ms Royal. She has the popularity and forcefulness that her partner lacks. Could Mr Hollande persuade the party that its best chances lie with his other half?

The reinvigorated French Socialist Party is still in search of a forceful leader.

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