Spain’s politics: Change at the top

Date: 26/07/03

Aznar says he will quit. Zapatero may (or may not) have to. What now?

“I AM sure I won't be standing at the next elections; what I do not know is whether you will.” The prime minister, José María Aznar, caused uproar in the Spanish parliament on July 1st with his gibe at the opposition Socialists' leader, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero. But it was fair enough. Mr Aznar has long said that he will quit the leadership of his People's Party before next March's general election, though he is still saying not a word to indicate whom he fancies as his successor. But is Mr Zapatero on the way out too?

After three years at the head of his party, he is plainly in trouble. The Socialists did not make all the gains they hoped for in local and regional elections in May, and an (alleged) corruption scandal cheated them of their one big prize, the Madrid region. Now, with only nine months before the election, senior party members are wondering if they have the right chief. In fact, he will probably survive until the election. The party has publicly rallied behind him: it cannot afford five changes of leadership in six years. But if it loses, his future is, at best, uncertain.

The Socialists lost power to Mr Aznar in 1996. The May elections gave them hope: they won marginally more votes than the People's Party. But they could have done so much better. Mr Aznar, and his party in Galicia, had grossly mismanaged last autumn's huge oil spill from the sunken Prestige tanker off that region's coast. Voters were massively hostile to his support for the war in Iraq. He has bungled labour-law reforms. But Mr Zapatero failed to capitalise on these blunders. And just as the Socialists and some far-left allies were about to take control of Madrid's regional assembly, two party members slipped away from the vote. The media accused them of taking backhanders in a building scandal. Mr Zapatero had them expelled from the party. The People's Party crowed - until some of its members too were involved. The affair has burgeoned, far beyond the comprehension of most Spaniards, but one political result is plain: if this region's voting is restaged in October, as is likely, the Socialists cannot expect to fare well.

“It is the worse thing that could happen to us,” said a party spokesman. Could be. The 13 years for which the Socialists' last successful national leader, Felipe González, ran Spain ended in scandal. Here they are again. Critics say the youthful Mr Zapatero has not managed to build a wall between himself and the old guard of Mr González, who still exercises a shadowy influence. Affable and consensual, he has not stamped his personality on the party, they complain; he lacks the balls - as Spaniards readily put it - to unite what at times appears to be little better than an affiliation of regional parties.

Worse still for him, it was a Socialist clique in Madrid, known as Reform from the Base, that both gave him his slim victory as party leader at a congress three years ago and spawned the two fugitive regional-assembly members this summer. But there is still hope, say the faithful. There is time before the elections to claw back support and Zapa, as the rank and file know him, has only one visible challenger, José Bono, from Castile-La Mancha. Though Mr Bono did brilliantly there in May's elections, he recently swore fealty to Mr Zapatero, and many doubt he could thrive outside his idiosyncratic and uninfluential region. And if Mr Zapatero leads the Socialists into the election, but loses it? Party members say he would survive if the loss were not heavy. Well, maybe.

On the other side, too, little is certain. The People's Party must make up its mind about an heir to Mr Aznar at a congress in the autumn. Three heavyweights long led the betting: Rodrigo Rato, the finance minister and one of two deputy prime ministers; the other (and a former home minister), Mariano Rajoy; and Jaime Mayor Oreja, an earlier home minister until he was sent off to win the Basque region for his party. Mr Mayor Oreja failed there, but his fierce hostility to the ETA terrorists won applause throughout Spain (and this week's two ETA bombs on the Costa Blanca cannot have hurt him). Polls still show him a little ahead of the other two.

Maybe to no effect: far ahead of all three comes young Alberto Ruiz-Gallardn, who in May led his party to a notable triumph in the city of Madrid. Senior party figures have told him to bide his time. Mr Aznar, who is no lame duck, might choose his most faithful acolyte, the current home minister, Angel Acebes. But he could yet opt for Mr Ruiz-Gallardn. The youthful mayor of Madrid is no Aznarista, but he is a winner; and, after winning two elections, and two pretty successful terms of office, Mr Aznar would love a third victory for his party to set the seal on them.

Spanish Prime Minister Aznar says he will quit before the next General Election in March 2003. But what about the opposition Socialist's leader, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero.