Croatia: Backlash

Date: 29/11/03

The return of the nationalists

SMALL country in south-eastern Europe has election: government changes. Ever since the bloody break-up of Yugoslavia in the 1990s, Croats have dreamed of the day when their country is like anywhere else. It may happen. Yet its election on November 23rd still produced a surprise. The opposition Croatian Democratic Union, or HDZ, did far better than expected, thrashing the ruling centre-left coalition.

The HDZ is the party that, under Franjo Tudjman, took Croatia out of Yugoslavia and led it through years of fighting. But it was ejected in 2000, discredited by corruption scandals and by its intolerant brand of nationalism, which no longer chimed with the times. Its new head, Ivo Sanader, has purged the party of some hard-core nationalist leaders. Indeed, Mr Sanader now claims that the HDZ is no longer nationalist at all. He wants the world to see it as another Christian Democratic party.

Mr Sanader, who will be the next prime minister, is a former theatre director from Split. He became deputy foreign minister and then head of President Tudjman's office. He speaks four languages, studied in Austria and makes clear that foreign policy is a preoccupation. Among his team are diplomats such as Miomir Zuzul, Croatia's former envoy to Washington, tipped to be the new foreign minister.

Mr Sanader says he wants Croatia to join the European Union in 2007. That is wildly optimistic, but he says he knows of nobody who got anywhere by being pessimistic. And accession soon after 2007 does seem feasible. In the short term, though, Mr Sanader will have to resolve the problem of Ante Gotovina, a Croatian general indicted by the war-crimes tribunal in The Hague. Many Croats regard the general as a hero. The outgoing government was unwilling or unable to arrest him, claiming not to know where he was. A fresh batch of indictments is expected soon; this week, unexpectedly, an indicted Croatian Serb leader from Krajina, Milan Babic, actually appeared in The Hague.

For now, the Gotovina case is crucial. It seems that Mr Sanader recognises that he has no choice but to arrest the general, who, as it happens, had close links with his political enemies. The case has already stalled Croatia's advance towards the EU: its association agreement has been blocked by Britain and the Netherlands. Next year the European Commission must give its opinion on Croatia's application for membership. If Croatia fails this hurdle, it could fall behind Bulgaria and Romania, and it might even have to wait for such laggards as Serbia.

Mr Sanader is now seeking coalition partners to give him the extra few seats he needs for a solid majority in parliament. One likely ally is the conservative Croatian Peasants' Party. Mr Sanader would, however, like to avoid links with another right-wing party that, until recently, glorified Croatia's second world war fascist leaders. More unusually, he is wooing the party of Croatia's remaining Serbs. This would look good to the outside world but might not impress most HDZ members, whom Davor Gjenero, a political analyst, describes as old-style nationalists even if Mr Sanader has moved on.

The economic challenges for the new government will be huge. But Indira Konjhodzic, the World Bank head in Croatia, says a lot has been done already. For example, pension reform is more advanced than in France or Germany. But unemployment is some 18%, rising to 40% for 15-30-year-olds. Judicial and administrative reforms are urgently needed. Croatia has only 4.4m people but a backlog of 1.2m civil cases, including issues over title deeds. “The next four years will be really hectic,” she adds. Mr Sanader will have his work cut out.

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