Northern Cyprus: A glimmer of hope

Date: 20/12/03

An inconclusive election may yet boost hopes of unification

ON DECEMBER 14th, some 120,000 Turkish Cypriots voted in parliamentary elections which, it had been hoped, would push forward plans to unite the divided Mediterranean island and allow the Turkish and Greek parts to join the European Union together next May. The vote was also expected to affect Turkey's own chances of one day joining the EU. In the event, a block of opposition parties favouring the UN plan for a loose federation of largely autonomous Greek and Turkish states tied with the two ruling nationalist groups that oppose it. The result: a hung parliament, with both sides getting an equal number of seats in the 50-strong chamber. They must agree to form some kind of coalition within the next two months, or face fresh elections.

A firm opposition victory would have strengthened the hand of Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's reformist prime minister, who, at least tacitly, backs the UN plan. But he still faces fierce resistance from hardline generals, for whom the Turkish north of Cyprus (where they station some 35,000 troops) remains a strategic foothold in the Mediterranean. The generals would be prepared to let go of it, says the country's chief of general staff, Hilmi Ozkok, only if Turkey were allowed into the EU. European leaders counter that the Turks need to fix Cyprus before they can even have a date to start membership talks.

It sounds like Catch-22. But several things suggest that the inconclusive result may not have doomed the chances of a settlement. It was a setback for Rauf Denktash, the stubborn Turkish Cypriot leader who has long been blamed for the failure of three decades of UN peace talks. Mr Denktash has now hinted that he might withdraw and let a new government bargain for Turkish Cypriots.

Another hopeful sign is that Mehmet Ali Talat, the former engineer who leads the main opposition group, the Republican Turkish Party, may be ready to join a coalition with one of the right-wing groups. A deal endorsed by both sides would be easier to sell both to doubting islanders and to Mr Erdogan's nationalist supporters in Turkey. The Turkish foreign minister, Abdullah Gul, plans to unveil new proposals on Cyprus next week.

Meanwhile, in a landmark concession, the Turks have agreed to pay a Greek-Cypriot refugee, Titana Loizidou, €1.1m ($1.3m) awarded in 1998 by the European Court of Human Rights when it upheld her claim that Turkey had obstructed access to her home by its occupation of the north. The Turks succeeded in deferring restitution of Mrs Loizidou's property near Kyrenia until 2005. But unless a deal is struck and the UN plan kicks in, Turkey may have to pay out millions more in similar cases.

Time is running short. EU leaders have made clear that the Greek Cypriots will be admitted, together with nine other new members, next May even without a peace deal, leaving both the Turkish Cypriots and Turkey out in the cold. Turkey would then become, in effect, an occupation force in part of a member state. Once they are in the EU, the Greek Cypriots would have less incentive to accept the UN peace plan, which gives Turkish Cypriots unprecedented rights - among them, letting half the island's 70,000-odd Turkish settlers stay on and become EU citizens. No wonder so many of them voted, for the first time, for the opposition.