Come on, try getting excited

Date: 07/06/03

The Poles sound diffident about what should be a historic moment

YOU might expect Poles to be in a triumphant mood on June 7th and 8th as they vote on their country's proposed entry into the European Union, due in May next year, with the referendum crowning five years' tough negotiation. Pope John Paul, a Pole himself, has urged his compatriots to vote to join the EU, calling the event “a mark of historical justice”. Tony Blair, the British leader, sent a similar if more circumspect message while visiting Poland last month, saying it was “better to be in [the European Union] than out”.

Yet many Poles seem diffident. Forecasters were confident this week that a majority would support entry, but less confident that the turnout would top 50%, the threshold for making the vote binding. A lower turnout would oblige Poland's parliament to take the decision on EU entry instead - an adequate but inglorious way to seal the country's future, and one that would let Polish Eurosceptics blame scheming politicians for stealing their sovereignty. “If it's a yes vote, we want it to be in parliament, so we'll always know who brought us in,” says Maciej Giertych, an MP for the League of Polish Families, a nationalist party that is against EU entry.

The government has chosen to extend the referendum over two days in the hope of attracting more voters: a similar ploy worked well in next-door Lithuania last month, where a two-day referendum drew a 63% turnout and a 91% yes vote. Recent votes in Slovakia and Hungary also produced big majorities in favour of joining, but on disappointing turnouts of 52% and 46% respectively. Czechs will be next to vote, on June 13th and 14th. By the end of September all ten countries (bar Cyprus) waiting to join the EU next year will have voted on the accession treaty which they signed in April and which must also be ratified by the 15 current EU countries.

Poland's vote is the most closely watched, because it is by far the biggest of the ten, accounting for more than half their total population and almost half their GDP. Once inside the Union, it will rank below only Britain, France, Germany and Italy in voting power. Alone among the new members, it will have a leading voice in all EU decisions. Its priorities are likely to include securing more subsidies from Brussels for its farmers; lobbying to keep open the long-term prospect of EU membership for its big neighbour Ukraine; and keeping the EU well away from “family” issues such as divorce and abortion, where Poland fears dilution of its predominantly Catholic values.

Poland's Atlanticist instincts will make it an ally for Britain in European defence policy. It has courted French displeasure twice already this year, by ordering American-made F-16 warplanes for its air force and by backing the Americans in their war in Iraq, despite withering public criticism of Europe's eastern newcomers from France's president, Jacques Chirac.

Poland has emerged a winner diplomatically from Iraq, more so than Mr Chirac at any rate. By seizing a chance to act internationally, it has increased its prospective clout within the EU while also confirming itself as America's best friend in continental Europe. During a visit to Cracow on May 31st, President George Bush declared, encouragingly if disingenuously, that Poland was “a good citizen of Europe, [and] a good friend of America, and there is no conflict between the two”.

A solid yes vote would be one way for Poland to confirm its enthusiasm for the EU. The main danger comes less from Euroscepticism than from a history of political cynicism and low voting turnouts. The 1997 constitution, which rashly fixed the 50% turnout threshold for referendums, was approved by a referendum in which only 43% voted. Some Poles may shun the vote on EU entry because they think the decision has, in effect, already been taken. According to one poll taken last month, a majority thought the country would join the EU even if the referendum produced a No vote: parliament would overrule the decision, or a new referendum would be held.

Another problem is the unpopularity of Poland's left-wing government, led by Leszek Miller. A corruption scandal has undermined its authority, high unemployment has made it even less popular, and its majority in parliament disappeared in March when Mr Miller's Democratic Left party broke with its junior coalition partner, the Peasants' Party. That has left Mr Miller, a supporter of EU entry, in no position to cheerlead for the referendum. He has had to cede that role to Poland's president, Alexander Kwasniewski.

If the decision on EU entry does end up in parliament, Polish MPs should muster readily enough the two-thirds majority needed to approve accession. It is open to much more doubt whether Mr Miller could long survive the humiliation of a botched referendum. Even a successful one may not revive his sagging fortunes for more than a few months. Last week Mr Kwasniewski stepped up the pressure by saying Poland would need a prime minister with a parliamentary majority to push through next year's budget. One candidate may be Jerzy Hausner, the country's Keynesian-minded economics and labour minister; under his leadership the Democratic Left would find it easier to form a new coalition with the Peasants' Party.

IFES Election Guide: Homepage http://www.electionguide.org/index.php

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