Germany’s Social Democrats: Slow implosion

Date: 22/11/03

The sad state of the ruling party

A CHURCH that loses its faithful, its clergy and its doctrine is doomed. Such, say some, is the fate of Germany's governing Social Democrats (SPD). This week's party congress in Bochum failed to dispel the gloom. Although Gerhard Schröder, Germany's chancellor, was re-elected as chairman, with 81% of the votes, other leaders were punished for their “neo-liberal” views and the party's woes, notably the secretary-general, Olaf Scholz.

More is needed to stop the party's “implosion”, in the words of Franz Walter, a historian. This year alone, the SPD has lost 5% of its members, or 26,400 people. The leavers are often those who did most of the tedious party work. Long-time voters, too, are turning away in droves. At most recent regional elections, the party has won about 10% fewer votes than before. If national elections were held now, the SPD might get only 29% of the vote, compared with 38.5% in September 2002.

What is more, the smaller SPD is hardly dynamic. Mr Schröder was re-elected only because delegates do not like undermining their chancellor. There is little political talent in the wings. During its time in opposition the SPD missed any chance to articulate a new programme, leaving members (and voters) confused.

One reason for the mess is Mr Schröder himself. He is doing almost the opposite of what he vowed to do during last year's election campaign. It is only now that his government is trying to communicate coherently what its Agenda 2010 reforms are for. And he is miscast as party chairman. A pragmatic politician at heart, he is incapable of laying out the vision that the SPD needs. In his speech to the party congress, he spent only two minutes on how Germany might look in 2010. Asked if he would expand on this in future speeches, he replied: “Ach, leave me alone.”

The SPD seems out of step with the times. Despite its conversion to free-market capitalism at its historic 1959 congress in Bad Godesberg, many members still harbour hopes of a socialist future. At the same time, argues Mr Walter, the party's policies have let erstwhile activists climb up to become part of the establishment. In some ways, the SPD is no longer a Volkspartei, or inclusive people's party.

This ought to be good news for the Christian Democrats (CDU). Yet a few years on, the CDU could find itself in a similar situation. Some have long called it Germany's “second social-democratic party”. Party leaders are quarrelling about the structural reforms proposed by their boss, Angela Merkel. Her decision to expel Martin Hohmann, a far-right backbencher, for an anti-Semitic speech may also reduce the party's popular support.

All of which raises the question of where disaffected voters might go. There is talk of a bigger extra-parliamentary opposition: in early November a protest rally in Berlin attracted more than 100,000. Observers also wonder if Germany might, like some other countries, see the emergence of a new political force, such as the late Pim Fortuyn's party in the Netherlands or Trotskyite groupings in France.

Fortunately for Germany's two big Volksparteien, the political landscape does not lend itself to big changes. To the left stand the former communists, not an attractive bunch. To the right stands German history, which limits the chances for populists or nationalists. So far, it is the party of non-voters that has grown. For the SPD, then, there is still hope that, if only the economy improves, it could win back some of its lost congregation.

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