Fate of posted workers still up in the air

Social affairs ministers gather in Brussels next week with little clue as to whether they will be able to broker a deal on the long-stalled proposal for a directive on posted workers.

Member state experts have spent several hours poring over an Italian compromise paper which would essentially require that local employment conditions apply to posted workers from day one, but allow companies to apply for derogations to the 'zero option'.

An official from one member state claimed that it would be quite easy for 'a clever presidency' to manoeuvre the debate round to secure a qualified majority in favour of the Italian plan.

But a number of imponderables have made the outcome of the 29 March Council 'too hard to call'.

Uncertainty still surrounds the position of Spain, which is yet to form a government after this month's general election. While the victory of the Conservative Popular Party would indicate a shift in favour of a longer threshold period before local rules apply, Spain is a major importer of labour.

Although it has toned down earlier positive noises about its probable position, Portugal's socialist administration has yet to pin its colours firmly to the mast.

There have also been indications that Ireland may be moving slightly away from its earlier insistence on a lengthy threshold period. Rome's suggestion of an exemption for workers on short-term service contracts is of major importance to the Irish government.

Italy's position is also far from certain in the medium-term, as it moves towards yet another general election on 21 April.

Even if ministers decide to hold substantive talks on the question, they may hold back from forcing through a deal against a large minority.

'It would be something of a first to overrule a large group of countries in the Social Affairs Council,' commented one diplomat.