Serbia and Ratko Mladic. Closing in

Date: 25/02/06

Why General Ratko Mladic seems likely to go to The Hague

SOME years ago a television station in the Serb bit of Bosnia reported that Alija Izetbegovic, the wartime leader of the Bosnian Muslims, was dead. It was a scoop--except that Mr Izetbegovic was alive at the time. On February 21st the same station reported that Ratko Mladic, the Bosnian Serb wartime general, had been arrested. Within hours this was international news--but nobody could confirm it.

The instant headlines reflect the fact that Mr Mladic and Radovan Karadzic, the wartime Bosnian Serb president, are now the most wanted men in Europe. In 1995 Mr Mladic was indicted for crimes against humanity and genocide by the UN war-crimes tribunal in The Hague. Above all he is remembered for Srebrenica: when his forces took the town in July 1995, they went on to slaughter some 8,000 Bosnian Muslim men and boys.

Since 1995 Mr Mladic has evaded capture--or, rather, been protected by military, security and political circles in Serbia. Many Serbs still see him as a hero. But now Serbia has become hostage to the general. More than ten years after the Bosnian war, Serbia is tentatively negotiating its first steps towards membership of the European Union. In the past few weeks, diplomats and EU officials have been saying that the talks might be suspended unless Mr Mladic is delivered to The Hague.

A second factor has also entered the picture. On February 20th formal talks began in Vienna on the future of Serbia's province of Kosovo. More than 90% of its population is ethnic Albanian. The province is now under the jurisdiction of the UN and it seems certain that, against Serbia's wishes, Kosovo will win some form of independence. The flurry over Mr Mladic, including statements by officials that they are determined to arrest him, may be part of an effort to garner friends for Serbia in the Kosovo talks.

By mid-week Serbia's newspapers were full of contradictory stories. Some screamed "Mladic Arrested"; others went for the more cautious "Arrested?". Braca Grubacic, one of Serbia's best-informed analysts, argued that Mr Mladic had only hours or days left at liberty. In the past, he said, the general had lived in army barracks and kept tight links to Serbia's security services, but the government of Vojislav Kostunica has managed to "break his relations with the army".

The problem for Mr Kostunica may be that, though he wants the general to go to The Hague, he does not want to be remembered as the prime minister who ordered his arrest and extradition to a war-crimes tribunal he loathes. In the past he has managed, by coercion or financial rewards, to get indictees to give themselves up voluntarily. Serbian sources say that Mr Mladic is refusing to co-operate and challenging the authorities to arrest him. If they must, Mr Kostunica may prefer him to be spirited into Bosnia to make it look as though he was arrested there, not in Serbia.

If it had not been for the Mladic story, another might have been leading the news in Serbia. This week the trial began in Belgrade of men who were filmed executing captured Muslims from Srebrenica in 1995. One of the accused told the court: "It is certain that I am guilty before God, but whether I am guilty for executing my orders, it is up to you to assess." Over ten years on, it is time for the man who gave those orders to face justice too.