Irish politics. A ghost that won’t go away

Date: 26/11/05

The spectre of Sinn Fein in the corridors of power proves hard to exorcise

THE next election may not take place for another 18 months, and the economy is doing well. So Ireland's ruling coalition ought to be quite confident. But something is keeping Dublin's politicians awake at night: the rise of Sinn Fein, the political wing of the Irish Republican Army. Bertie Ahern, the Taoiseach (prime minister), denies that he would ever contemplate a deal with the militant republicans. He even ruled out accepting parliamentary support from Sinn Fein, to form a minority government. He would rather take his Fianna Fail party into opposition than enter such a Faustian pact, he insisted.

Why did he feel obliged to protest so much? Partly because his rivals have used the whiff of suspicion that he might enter such a deal against him. And partly because the ruling coalition has failed to translate its economic achievements into popularity. Fianna Fail could find itself seeking support wherever it can - and a party like Sinn Fein, which hopes to increase its share of the vote to 10%, could be tempting. Already the junior partners in the coalition, the liberal-minded Progressive Democrats, have given warning that Sinn Fein may hold the balance of power after the next election. The main opposition party, Fine Gael, has been even blunter. Its leader, Enda Kenny, has told voters they face a stark choice between rule by Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein, mixing various shades of Irish nationalism, and a safer option of a coalition between itself and the Labour party.

Why - given that its IRA allies are supposed to have given up their arsenal and renounced violence - is Sinn Fein considered so untouchable? Mainly because of its wacky economic policies, and the sense that even a dash of Sinn Fein influence in high places would ruin Ireland's image as a nimble player of the globalisation game. Sinn Fein favours higher taxes all round: on income, on capital, on the banks and on the corporate sector. It is deeply hostile to the European Union - a view that finds little sympathy in the Irish establishment. In the words of Mr Ahern himself, Sinn Fein is an "agent of poverty and disadvantage".

Gerry Adams, the Sinn Fein leader, is unlikely to be fazed by these words. In a hung parliament, his party might simply back Mr Ahern, even if there was no formal arrangement. Would Mr Ahern then resign, or would he stay in power? A lot of Irish voters would like to know.

The spectre of Sinn Fein in the corridors of power proves hard to exorcise.