EU searches for the right single voice

Date: 29/04/1999

By Simon Taylor

The Amsterdam Treaty's entry into force next week will not see the rebirth of the EU as a giant on the world political stage, despite extensive changes to the Union's Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP).

Union governments have already delayed putting in place the most important element of the new CFSP - the appointment of a high-profile political figure to act as a single voice for the Union's foreign policy.

A decision on the new High Representative will not be taken until the Cologne summit in June, six months after EU leaders originally hoped to reach agreement.

Union governments' unwavering support for the NATO air-strikes on Serbia have also changed views on the profile of the figure who will represent the Union on foreign policy issues. Ireland's popular ex-Foreign Minister Dick Spring had been touted as a prime candidate, but the fact that he comes from a neutral, non-NATO member country now effectively rules him out.

One name stands out in the impending battle for the post: current NATO secretary-general Javier Solana. His rising world profile and professional handling of NATO's action against Yugoslavia have made him the ideal figure to boost the EU's political clout. But if Solana stays on at NATO, as expected, Paddy Ashdown, ex-marine and departing leader of the British Liberal Democrats, is increasely being tipped for the job of 'Mr or Mrs CFSP'.

In any event, the issue will be decided by the usual horse-trading between EU governments as the battle over which member states get which European Commission dossiers intensifies.

Whoever fills the post will have a key input into the new administrative arrangements introduced by Amsterdam, including the creation of a Policy Planning Unit (PPU) and an early warning unit. The PPU will coordinate the views of different Union institutions to help draw up common policies, while the early warning unit will gather intelligence to help the Union act before problems develop into fully-blown crises.

But the delay in appointing the High Representative means there will be no real progress on getting the new foreign policy unit up and running until the autumn at the earliest.

Any fears that the new post-Amsterdam arrangements will mean foreign policy being taken out of the hands of national capitals are greatly overstated. A glance at the rules for agreeing common approaches underlines the efforts which have been made to craft the greatest possible consensus out of diverging national attitudes while preventing any country from throwing a spanner in the works by wielding its veto.

Decisions on common positions, the cornerstone of CFSP, will be taken by qualified majority but member states will have the option of "constructive abstention". This will allow them to register their opposition to a proposed course of action, while undertaking not to block implementation of whatever decision is taken.

The one area where CFSP work has already advanced is on agreeing guidelines aimed at coordinating individual member states policies towards third countries. A draft strategy for Russia has already been produced and diplomats hope to finalise it at Cologne.

Another major change under Amsterdam will be that the troika system - which has sought to ensure continuity in foreign policy by making the past, present and future holders of the EU presidency the Union's representatives on the world stage - will be replaced by the High Representative on diplomatic missions.