Arab-Israeli stalemate threatens EuroMed programme

Date: 04/02/1999

By Simon Taylor

IN APRIL, foreign ministers from the European Union and the Middle East will meet in the affluent southern German city of Stuttgart to discuss ways of injecting new impetus into the EU's strategy for building a zone of prosperity and security in the Mediterranean.

But within the Union, there are growing fears that lack of progress in the Arab-Israeli peace process could 'contaminate' the EuroMed programme. "The EuroMed is being kidnapped by developments in the Middle East peace process," said one EU official.

Despite attempts to limit the damage from the stalled peace talks, officials admit that it is impossible to separate the two issues completely, but stress that "it is important to see that the negative spillover is contained".

There are three legs to the Barcelona Process which was launched in 1995 between the 15 EU member states and 12 Mediterranean countries: a political dimension, economic and commercial links, and cooperation on cultural projects.

While efforts to forge closer ties in the commercial field have been relatively successful, much less progress has been made in attempts to strengthen political relations. "It is true that some aspects cannot go forward," admitted one official.

Efforts to move ahead with a special agreement on mutual security concerns such as terrorism have been held up by the failure to find a lasting solution to the conflict between the Palestinians and Israelis, with a planned charter on peace and security held up by continuing disputes between Lebanon and Syria on the one hand, and Israel on the other, over land.

It was hoped that an improvement in relations between Arafat and Netanyahu would boost Israeli investment in neighbouring countries. But that is off the agenda for the time being.

But while the Barcelona Process has slipped a gear, the fact that the framework exists despite all the political upheavals in the region is hailed as an achievement in itself.

"We are proud that it is the only forum where Syria and Israel sit together," said one official, referring to EuroMed's programme of ministerial meetings and regular sessions in Brussels.

Diplomats say the 27 countries which signed the Barcelona declaration continue to hold "meaningful" discussions on some of the most delicate issues relating to national security.

"There is an ongoing political dialogue taking place on subjects like human rights which is a very delicate issue," said one.

He said that the Union was trying to include special clauses in its bilateral agreements with the 12 EuroMed countries which would allow the EU to suspend all or part of an accord if the other side broke commitments on human rights, adding: "We are introducing an element which was previously impossible."

There are, however, worries that the Stuttgart meeting could fail to keep up the momentum generated by the last ministerial session in Palermo in June of last year. The EU's special envoy to the peace process Miguel Moratinos has warned that next ministerial meeting could be a "stale repetition of Palermo" unless some new impetus was given to the peace process.

But officials insist that the importance of the EuroMed programme outweighs the immediate problems posed by the impasse over the Arab-Israeli relationship.

"Barcelona is larger than the peace process. It is important to put across to the Arabs the message that in the global era you need to have a strong partner," said one official, explaining why there was no alternative to what EuroMed was trying to do in terms of regional cooperation.

Another diplomat stressed that the strength of Barcelona was the broad scope of areas covered, ranging from technical cooperation projects to museum exchanges and work with non-governmental organisations. "It is a very wide process, so it is not in these countries' interests to let the process crumble," said one EU expert.

Nevertheless, given that there is no prospect of movement in the Arab-Israeli talks before June at the earliest, the chances of Stuttgart delivering the much-needed breakthrough in the Union's relations with the Middle East appear extremely slim.

Annual trade between countries in the region and the EU (millions of euro)

Source: Eurostat

Israeli/Palestinian economies

Israeli economic data (1998)

Inflation: 8.6%

Trade balance: - 513 million euro

Unemployment: 8.4%

GDP, annual growth rate: 1.4%

Prime Bank Rate: 15.0%

Palestinian economic data (1998)

Inflation: August 1998 - 3.5%

Unemployment: Quarter 3 1998 -15.5%

Trade by truckloads, % 1998, year-on change

Imports: +17

Exports: -6

Sources: Reuters and Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics