New strategy on Turkey awaited with misgiving

Date: 26/06/1997

By Mark Turner

PROPOSALS for a new relationship between Turkey and the

EU are awaited with serious misgivings by both Europe and the troubled Black Sea state.

A forthcoming European Commission report will in theory sketch out plans for an enhanced political and commercial relationship with Istanbul. But it could well be interpreted as a transparent and unacceptable sop to elbow Turkey out of Union enlargement in the medium term.

“This document could be extremely detrimental,” warned spokesman Selim Yenel from Turkey's mission to the Union. “It depends how it is worded and how European governments react to it.”

Given continued threats by Ankara to veto NATO's expansion if it is shut out of the EU, the plan's impact could be felt for a long time to come. If it does spark the storm that some fear, it could prove yet another destabilising influence upon a nation already in political turmoil.

The sensitivity of the situation has caused splits within the Commission itself over when and how the proposals should be announced, adding to disagreements amongst the Union's member states. Some insist that now is entirely the wrong time for such a move, especially given Turkey's military incursion into Iraq and its continued failure to respect human rights there.

Others argue exactly the opposite for the same reasons. Europe has a perfect opportunity to show support for Turkey at a time when the country's future lies in the balance, they claim.

Hoping to avoid controversy, the Commission - which is due to adopt the report officially next week - is keeping details of its contents firmly under wraps.

Nevertheless, insiders say it will be a minimalist document, with a heavy emphasis upon improving commercial relations under the EU-Turkey customs union launched in 1995.

“It will be short and punchy, and focus on achievements so far,” said an official. “The proposals will only lay out broad strokes which will, if member states want, be fleshed out later.”

The paper was first conceived at a meeting of foreign ministers at Apeldoorn in March, in a bid to allay growing speculation that the EU intended to cut Turkey loose from the western world.

Europe's Christian Democrat leaders had earlier made statements suggesting that the country would never become a Union member, causing bitter resentment in Ankara.

In an effort to lay these concerns to rest, the paper will call for a “deepening and widening” of commercial relations (including in agriculture and services), a more dynamic political dialogue and greater cooperation in justice and home affairs issues.

“None of this should be taken as settled, however,” said an official. “The document will be full of 'coulds' and 'woulds'.”

Neither will it broach the most sensitive issue of all - Turkey's future prospects for Union membership. That will be left instead for the Commission's 'Agenda 2000' communication, due on 16 July, which will be scrutinised by all the applicant countries.

“We would like to see a reaffirmation that Turkey is still eligible for EU membership,” said Yenel. “What the Union proposes in its new relationship should in no way deviate from the usual pre-accession process.

“We want to have exactly the same treatment as the other applicants to the EU. After all, economically we are better off than most of the central and eastern European countries.”

Were Turkey's application to be judged purely on economic criteria, it would be in a strong position. Recent figures from the country's ministry of foreign affairs show a gross domestic product per capita higher than six of the EU's eastern applicants, and a total GDP almost 50&percent; higher than that of Poland.

Turkey already conducts over half of all its trade with the Union, with a total two-way flow of more than 20 billion ecu, and expects to be the EU's fourth or fifth biggest trading partner by the year 2000. Bahadir Kaleagasi, of the Turkish Industrialists' and Businessmen's Association (TÜSIAD), adds that under the customs union, Turkey's trade deficit with the Union widened to over 4 billion ecu in its first year and around 9 billion ecu in 1996.

Although 1997 may show the first signs of recovery, it is clear that the Union has gained a lot from Turkish trade, with little by way of short-term return.

What particularly galls Ankara is that a package of financial assistance worth around 2 billion ecu designed to help Turkey adjust to freer trade remains blocked due to Greek opposition.

Given Athens' intransigence, both Yenel and Kaleagasi are concerned that behind all the empty promises of the new 'enhanced relationship', little will change in practice.

“It seems that the Commission is trying to be as ambitious as possible,” said Yenel. “But since at the moment we have no financial cooperation, and the existing 'political dialogue' is almost non-existent, it might be better to put into practice what we have already agreed than to try to progress further.”

Unfortunately, without far greater commitments from Ankara to improve human rights, and take a less warlike stance towards Greece and Cyprus, EU-Turkey relations are bound to remain strained for some time.

The European Court of Human Rights is at present processing a number of serious complaints of abuses in the country, and the lobby group Human Rights Watch warns that Turkey's conduct remains profoundly undemocratic.

Turkish hopes of being invited to Union accession negotiations therefore look highly unrealistic, especially given growing support for 'phased' talks with only the front runners.

That raises the question of whether the 'new relationship' will be enough in the mean-time. Without some significant improvements, Turkey's tough talk suggests it might not.