Union braced to grasp the Turkish nettle

Date: 24/04/1997

By Mark Turner

EUROPE's foreign ministers will finally look their Turkish counterpart in the eye next week, after a year of extremely troubled relations with Ankara.

The meeting, which at one stage looked like being cancelled because of Greek opposition, will attempt to broker solutions to a wide range of problems facing the two sides in advance of EU and NATO enlargement.

As such, it could be a seminal encounter at a time when the Union is in a state of profound indecision over its regional and global role. But it will probably end up fixing little more than a few technical hitches in the EU-Turkey customs union.

Although the political challenges facing both sides are clear - with Turkey calling for Union membership and the EU looking for a less ambitious trade relationship - the Union has to steer a careful line between the wishes of most of its members and the particular concerns of Greece.

Given that Athens' position in the face of what it sees as a serious military threat can at best be described as intransigent and that Union foreign policy requires unanimous approval, the EU's official room for manoeuvre is extremely limited.

Turkish Foreign Minister Onur Oymen will arrive in Luxembourg hoping to elicit a clear commitment from the Union that his country could one day become a member, and that it will receive financial assistance long overdue under the 1995 EU-Turkey customs union.

He is likely to go home at least partially disappointed.

Greece says it will not unblock the financial aid until Turkey becomes markedly less warlike. “There cannot be any release of funds until Turkey accepts a European Union declaration from last year which called on it to abide by international law and remove the threat of military force,” said a Greek spokesman.

Nor is the question of whether Turkey will be allowed into a 'standing conference' of long-term EU candidates likely to be fully resolved, especially given the cooling in Germany's attitude of late towards the Black Sea giant.

Nevertheless, there are some glimpses of hope on the horizon.

A first attempt at resolving the difficulties in EU-Turkish relations was made at the second Euro-Mediterranean ministerial conference a week ago, when Greek Alternate Foreign Minister George Papandreou met Oymen in a blaze of publicity.

The big question now is whether the two sides will agree to a Dutch proposal for a 'committee of wise men', made up of Greeks and Turks and possibly chaired by a third party, which would try to broker a solution to their continuing dispute over the Aegean Sea.

Ankara is all in favour of the idea, but while Athens claims to accept it in principle, it wants to limit the committee's scope to procedural issues.

These include the Turkish threat of war over Greek efforts to extend its maritime frontiers, the question of the disputed Aegean islets, and how such questions might be resolved at the international court in The Hague.

Greek Foreign Minister Theodoros Pangalos claims these issues can be resolved on a technical level as, in theory, they are already covered by international law. But critics suggest that to treat such flashpoints as non-political is a rather unrealistic negotiating position.

But if the two sides do not agree on some kind of settlement, there is a growing danger of the Balkan disease re-emerging more virulently than ever.

For a start, if Greece does not lift its block on the financial aid and the Union fails to offer sufficient demonstrations of friendship to the Turkish people, Ankara could well start to turn the clock back on integration with the West.

Without compensation, Turkey has been a substantial loser under the EU customs union. Nor is it fully satisfied with new Union offers of 'enhanced' cooperation in areas such as justice and home affairs.

“We will not be happy with anything less than membership,” said an Ankara spokesman.

If it begins to feel isolated from an unsympathetic West, Turkey's threat to block NATO expansion could become reality, as its parliament has the power to refuse to ratify a new enlarged treaty. And without Turkish cooperation over the Cyprus question, the island's accession to the Union is highly unlikely.

If Cypriot accession is stymied, Greece could stop EU enlargement to central and eastern Europe which, on top of a bar on NATO expansion, might be the final straw for applicant countries' struggling populations.

The far-reaching consequences of all this can only be guessed at.

The trouble is that if the Union gives away anything more to Ankara, it would be widely criticised for abandoning its already dubious commitment to human rights.

Despite its promises of reform, Turkey continues to abuse its citizens and shows few signs of improvement, according to civil liberties organisation Human Rights Watch.

It fears that with the Union failing to condemn Chinese oppression at the United Nations Commission on Human Rights this month, its failure to punish an undemocratic regime on its doorstep could be taken as a green light by other hard-liners.

As ever, the Balkans are proving a thorn in the side of European hopes for stable trading. But the fact that the EU-Turkey Association Council is taking place at all is giving heart to diplomats.

“Even if they do not agree anything, at least it will keep them talking instead of fighting,” said one.