Danish election timing boosts hopes for treaty

Date: 26/02/1998

By Tim Jones

THE snap election called by the Danish government has made a 'yes' vote in the country's May referendum on the Amsterdam Treaty more likely, according to analysts.

They say that if the position of the ruling Social Democrat and Radical Liberal alliance is strengthened by the results of the general election on 11 March, it will boost the government's moral authority in campaigning for support for the Amsterdam Treaty.

The timing of the election, which was originally due to be held in September, will also deny the Conservatives and Liberals the opportunity to use the referendum campaign to stoke-up anti-government sentiment. If they were to win power, they would be obliged to campaign enthusiastically for a 'yes' vote.

Announcing his decision to call an early general election last week, Prime Minister Poul Nyrup Rasmussen said he had done so to "avoid a long period of uncertainty and electoral speculation". But others put the move down to political opportunism, with Rasmussen anxious to capitalise on the recent firming of support for his Social Democratic Party.

If he is re-elected, thereby boosting the chances of a vote in favour of the Amsterdam Treaty on 28 May, other EU leaders will breathe a sigh of relief.

For once again, the future shape of Union politics lies in the hands of 5 million Danes. If they repeat their performance of six years ago and reject the Amsterdam terms, the Danish people will force a renegotiation of the treaty just as it is making its way through the national parliaments of the other 14 EU member states.

The outgoing Danish government holds 70 of the total 179 seats in the Folketing (parliament). Opinion polls over the past six months suggested this total would shrink to 65 if a general election were called, with the centre-right opposition enjoying a consistent lead. However, recent soundings suggested that the gap between right and left was narrowing to 38% over 35% respectively.

The anti-treaty campaign is dominated by fears of immigration among some Danes who are worried about opening borders between the EU's southern flank and the North.

The far right, which is also opposed to the treaty, has seen its standing improve largely as a result of increased air-time on Danish television and radio. But it would have to perform exceptionally well for the result to have a significant impact on the referendum vote, according to pollsters.

What is more certain is that if the Danes vote against the Amsterdam Treaty, the chances of a government of whatever hue taking the risk of applying soon for single currency membership would be very slim. "Even if there is a 'yes' vote, Denmark would probably not be in before 2002," said Flemming Nielsen, senior economist at Bikuben Girobank Markets in Copenhagen. "There is still too much resistance among the Danish people to participation in EMU."

One victim of the snap election is a landmark report from the staff of Economic Affairs Minister Marianne Jelved, a member of the Radical Liberals, which had been earmarked for publication amid much fanfare this week.

The report would have restated the government's aim of winning a sweetheart deal with the European Central Bank to keep the krone tightly pegged to the euro, and have made it clear that Danish suppliers to large euro-zone-based multinationals would probably have to deal with invoices in euro.

Preview and reports of general election in Denmark, 11.3.98.