Stage is set for Florentine finale

Date: 20/06/1996

By Rory Watson

THE moment of truth for Italy has now arrived. Stung earlier in the year by a steady stream of criticism of the country's handling of the Union presidency, Italian ministers and officials argued that judgement should be suspended until the end of their six-month spell at the EU helm.

With this weekend's European summit in Florence, that time has come. Few could have imagined how bumpy the road down which the Union has travelled since January would be.

In an ironic twist which only the most callous of gods would have wished, no sooner had the formation of Italy's new Prime Minister Romano Prodi's coalition government ended the political vacuum which had lasted for months than the EU was confronted with British Prime Minister John Major's controversial non-cooperation tactics.

The combination has meant a rough six months and left a sour taste in the Union's mouth, with the UK's behaviour prompting a more fundamental debate on the responsibilities of membership.

It has also reduced the numerical list of potential Italian presidency achievements by holding up at least 80 items of EU business - although London rarely admits that, in fact, it already opposed many of these on more fundamental grounds.

But from Italy's perspective, the cloud contains a silver lining. It has deflected critical attention away from Rome and towards London with a vengeance.

No one can predict with certainty the extent to which arguments over mad cows, beef derivatives and export bans will dominate the summit. Major, if only for domestic Eurosceptic consumption, certainly wants beef to feature high on the meeting's agenda.

After having to stomach much of the same at their last summit in Turin three months ago, other EU leaders will be in a less tolerant mood. None takes kindly to efforts being repaid not by thanks, but by a deliberate policy of non-cooperation.

The Union's five Christian Democratic leaders - including German Chancellor Helmut Kohl - who took the unusual step last week of calling on Major to end the obstructive tactics, reflected the views of all the UK's partners.

Their patience is likely to snap if beef makes more than a token appearance over the two-day meeting. As one former summit participant confirms: “They can certainly say some pretty harsh things to each other at these events and Major will be left in no doubt about their mood.”

Another suggested that any attempt by the UK to hijack the Italian agenda would merely strengthen the links between the other 14 and see a replay of scenes which have already been witnessed at the Intergovernmental Conference talks.

“Members of the IGC group listen very carefully to what the British have to say and then continue their own discussions as if the British had not spoken,” explains one official in the inner circle of negotiators charting EU reform.

The IGC is one area where the Italian hosts are aiming to secure a clear political message from the Florence meeting. Shrugging off criticism from several other member states of being over-ambitious, Italy hopes to persuade European leaders to pinpoint key issues which should be at the heart of the negotiations to be chaired by their successors, Ireland.

“Our report for the next presidency will continue to throw light on different positions and on the drafting of treaty articles on certain points. We have not reached the same level of maturity on all subjects. In the Irish phase, it will be possible in some areas to move to firm negotiations based on texts, but in others we still need to clarify the concepts involved,” explains outgoing IGC chairman Silvio Fagiolo.

Italy is hoping to limit summit discussion of the IGC to four central political issues: unemployment, flexible integration, and the Union's internal and external security.

All four raise the fundamental question of the balance between national sovereignty and the powers of the Union and, in practical terms, have a direct impact on public opinion.

Participants in the IGC negotiations readily accept that after three months of meetings, the time has come for some firm direction to be given by those at the pinnacle of Union decision-making. But, equally, they remain sceptical over Florence's ability to provide this.

“Things are very loose at the moment. We need a mandate for the Irish. But because the group has not yet really started negotiating, there is not much the summit can do except deal with some procedural issues and perhaps suggest that certain questions should be tackled by a certain date,” says one close IGC observer.

That list of questions is expected to include those tabled by the Italians and also, for diplomatic reasons, some hobby-horses of particular interest to individual governments.

It is likely to be extended, for instance, to include French demands for the appointment of a prominent personality to represent Union foreign and security policy, and for closer involvement of national parliaments in EU business - even though the Union is divided over the first and France is isolated on the second.

While the jury is still out on the extent to which Florence can move the IGC into a higher gear, the outlook is distinctly gloomier for more traditional items regularly served up to EU leaders at summits.

Originally billed as a 'summit for jobs' to complement last December's single currency summit in Madrid, predictions about Florence's ability to contribute much to the fight against unemployment are now being scaled down.

Similarly, Commission President Jacques Santer's efforts to transfer potential savings of 2 billion ecu in farm spending over the next three years to a range of Union-funded infrastructure, research and job-creation schemes look set to run into the sand.

The idea has already been savaged by a core group of EU finance ministers and, despite official Union backing on numerous occasions for the various projects involved, is firmly opposed by Germany, France and the UK.

Italian officials accept that, unlike the Madrid summit, few operational decisions face Union leaders in Florence. But one which does is the future status of the Europol intelligence agency, with the expiry of the one-year deadline which the Union set itself in Cannes last year for a final agreement.

The issue will be a litmus test for relations between the UK and its 14 partners. The latter wish to involve the European Court of Justice in the operation of the convention and, to secure an agreement, are prepared to exempt the UK from scrutiny by the Luxembourg-based judges. They will not take kindly if the deal continues to be blocked because of the unrelated argument over the beef export ban.

Florence will also be a time for Union leaders to raise their eyes beyond purely EU horizons. It will, among other things, provide them with their first serious opportunity to consider an event which arguably could have as great an impact on the Union's future as the many domestic items on their agenda: the outcome of presidential elections in Russia.

The summit is unlikely to be one of the major highlights in the development of the Union.

But if the fall-out from the beef dispute can be contained and Boris Yelstin looks like defeating Gennady Zyuganov, participants will leave the Renaissance city bathed in smiles. If not, then frowns will be the order of the day.