FYROM views neighbouring unrest with apprehension

Date: 27/03/1997

By Mark Turner

FEARS that Albanian anarchy could spill over to the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM) may be unfounded, but tension in southern Serbia does pose a long-term risk to the country's stability and should not be discounted, warn European Commission sources.

In the meantime, the continuing dispute over the country's name means that the EU cannot officially even sign a basic cooperation agreement with Skopje.

Given the Balkans' continued ability to rock international relations, the importance of the small, landlocked nation should not be underestimated.

Bordering on one EU member state (Greece), one Union applicant (Bulgaria), Serbia and Albania, events in FYROM are being watched closely for their regional implications.

For the time being, things seem relatively stable. While the country has had some problems with saving schemes, they have not been on a scale comparable to those in Albania.

“FYROM has a larger real economy than Albania, and its investment schemes are not based on pure speculation,” explained a Commission expert on the region.

The Macedonian minority in Albania was not badly hit by the collapse of its pyramid investment schemes, reducing the risk of side effects in their country of origin. And while FYROM's economy is still under stress - with a per capita gross domestic product of around 635 ecu - it is improving.

But the country is still dogged by political difficulties. The EU recently felt it necessary to support publicly the Skopje government's decision to allow Albanian students in the capital to be taught in their own language. A Union statement regretted demonstrations instigated by extreme nationalists attacking the government's liberal stance.

Although ethnic tensions are in general not high in FYROM, and its people tend to shy away from violence, the protests did demonstrate a general sensitivity to the issue of the Albanian minority in the country.

Just under 23&percent; of FYROM's 2 million inhabitants are of Albanian origin, concentrated in the rural western regions. While relations are for the most part cordial, Albanian radicals are pushing for greater recognition by Skopje.

What tension there is is not helped by unrest in Kosovo, a region in the south of Serbia where Albanians used to have substantial autonomy but saw it taken away with the arrival of President Slobodan Milosevic.

Fears are that if things get worse there, FYROM might face a flood of Albanian refugees, raising tensions in Skopje.

Alternatively, should Albanians become more radical in Kosovo, that might be taken as a model by their compatriots in FYROM, suggest Brussels sources.

A Skopje diplomat played down the threat of internal dissent from Albanians - stressing that their treatment conforms with all international guidelines and compares well with Kosovo - but did take the threat of refugees from the North seriously.

In the meantime, the country welcomes any economic aid it can get. The Union has earmarked some 100 million ecu from 1992-1999 to help the government reform its land policy and agriculture, and to support small enterprises.

The diplomat suggested that the country might also benefit from aid to its infrastructure, given past difficulties in importing oil during Greek blockades of the port of Thessaloníki.

The G-24 donor countries are also planning to give around 75 million ecu in macro-financial aid, 40 million ecu of which would come from the Union.

But an EU cooperation agreement with the country remains on ice until some way round the name problem is found.

The country's constitution does not allow the government to sign any document which bears the name FYROM. But Greece is equally adamant that it will never accept the name Macedonia - asserting that only the north of Greece deserves the title - and would never allow the EU to sign a deal under that name.

Informally, diplomats say that there are ways round this. An exchange of letters could have the same effect in practice as a cooperation agreement.