Conservatives braced for heavy losses in local polls

Date: 25/04/1996

By Rory Watson

THE last major practical test of British public opinion before a general election takes place next week when voters in most of England go to the polls to elect more than 3,000 local authority councillors.

The outcome - and the British government's reaction to its treatment at the hands of the electorate - will be pounced on by political commentators searching for clues to a possible general election date and Prime Minister John Major's standing in his Conservative Party.

A poor performance could delay a general election until this time next year, assuming Major's government can survive that long on a one-seat majority.

More importantly, it could weaken Major and leave him more vulnerable to Eurosceptics in his party demanding a robust nationalist line towards the Union.

Such a shift in influence would damage the already fragile chances of agreeing some measure of EU reform at the Intergovernmental Conference in the coming year.

The contest on 2 May is expected to result in heavy losses for the ruling Conservative Party.

At risk are hundreds of Tory candidates in 150 local councils who were first elected in 1992 shortly after Major's unexpected victory in the national poll. They now face an electorate in very different mood.

Analysts forecast that the Conservatives could lose between 400 and 600 of the 1,102 seats they are defending and forfeit overall control of several of the 13 local councils still in their power.

That reduced strength is already a far cry from the 188 local authorities that the Tories controlled when they swept into government in 1979.

In contrast, Labour will be hoping to capitalise on its strong standing in the country and may make as many as 500 gains.

The other major opposition party, the Liberal Democrats, is poised to win between 100 and 150 seats.

Mainstream Conservative politicians will put the setback down to local issues and refuse to acknowledge publicly that the results represent a trend which is likely to be repeated throughout the UK in a general election.

The opposition will draw very different conclusions.