Sampaio tops polls in presidential race

Date: 11/01/1996

By Elizabeth Wise

IT IS a two-man race going into this weekend's presidential elections in Portugal, with former Socialist mayor of Lisbon Jorge Sampaio maintaining a healthy lead over former Prime Minister Anibal Cavaco Silva.

The first to announce his candidacy, Sampaio has led the polls since he entered the race last February.

Recent surveys show his lead over Cavaco Silva slipping, but Sampaio still has the support of 50&percent; of voters in some polls, with Cavaco Silva being backed by 34&percent; and other candidates trailing far behind.

If Sampaio can notch up 50&percent; of the vote on Sunday (14 January), he will win the presidency outright and avoid a run-off second round for the top two contenders three weeks later.

Under the Portuguese constitution, the president has the power to dissolve parliament and call general elections, but his role is otherwise largely ceremonial.

That could change, however, if Sampaio wins, as both he and Prime Minister Antonio Guterres are members of the Partido Socialista (PS).

Because the president may intervene in political disputes, a Guterres-Sampaio duo could be a formidable force.

That would create a new situation for Portugal, where heads of state and government have traditionally belonged to different sides of the political spectrum.

Cavaco Silva has warned voters of a power monopoly, saying that two Socialists - and a Socialist majority in parliament - would create a “dictatorship of the majority”.

But citizens are tired of ten years of rule by the centre-right Social Democrats and Cavaco Silva is now suffering the consequences. Polls show Sampaio is even taking votes from conservative parties normally expected to go to Cavaco Silva.

On the far left, two parties are gathering modest numbers of votes. The Communist party's Jeronimo de Sousa pulls in some 3&percent; and is rumoured to be ready to hand them over to Sampaio by endorsing his candidacy.

The most popular man in the polls is President Mário Soares, now 71, who will step down on 8 March after reaching the limit of two five-year terms. Soares' popularity ratings are hovering at 68&percent;, even though he announced last week that he would retire from politics altogether when he leaves the presidential mansion.

Witness to the social sacrifices being made as Portugal tightens its belt in an attempt to meet the Maastricht criteria for membership of the single currency club, Soares has complained about the EU being run by French and German bureaucrats and dictated to by the Bundesbank.