Presidency team ignores crisis

Date: 04/01/1996

By Ivo Ilic Gabara

AS the EU waits to see what will become of Italy's teetering government, it will be business as usual next week when the incoming presidency team meets the European Commission to finalise its plans for the next six months.

Officials say the traditional meeting between Commissioners and their ministerial counterparts in the country taking over the presidency, scheduled for next Monday (8 January) in Rome, is expected to go ahead as planned.

But it is bound to be overshadowed by the domestic political crisis now gripping Italy, with its national parliament due to vote on Prime Minister Lamberto Dini's future next week, probably on 9 or 10 January, following a debate.

This carefully-timed move leaves, for the time being, Dini's non-elected technocratic government in office with full powers.

In next week's vote, the Italian parliament may decide to bring his mandate to an end, in which case Dini will head a caretaker government leading to elections in February or March, or it may grant the prime minister a second lease of life for the duration of Italy's presidency of the EU, resulting in elections in June.

This second option would still leave Italy with little more than a caretaker government, except in this case it would last longer.

A third scenario has taken shape over the Christmas period, namely that of a broad-based cross-party coalition government, dubbed “il Governissimo”.

The intended purpose of this would be to prepare broad constitutional and electoral reforms over the next two years, leading to a system designed to ensure political stability in a country that has witnessed a succession of more than 50 different governments in the post-war period.

The idea of a broad-based coalition became a technically-viable option following media magnate and former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's recent change of heart, which saw him abandon his previously persistent calls for a snap general election as his forthcoming trial on corruption charges later this month began to loom large on the horizon.

However, Berlusconi's main coalition partner Gianfranco Fini, leader of the right-wing Alleanza Nazionale (AN), remains openly hostile to the idea of il Governissimo.

On the other side of the political divide, the idea would also need the support of the centre-left bloc led by Romano Prodi to stand any chance of getting off the ground.

But Prodi himself is opposed to this scenario and Maasimo d'Alema, leader of the Partito Democratico della Sinistra (PDS) - the strongest party within the centre-left bloc - remains unconvinced.

A combination of the AN's hostility and the scepticism of the PDS makes the option of a broad-based Governissimo unrealistic.

A further element of confusion marred the Italian Christmas break with the indictment of the former magistrate of the anti-corruption operation “Mani Pulliti”, Antonio Di Pietro, on charges of alleged extortion and abuse of office. The fallen hero, who was widely expected to enter the political fray, may now be prevented from doing so, thereby frustrating the centre-left's hopes of striking an electoral deal with him.

It was against this background that Italian President Oscar Luigi Scalfaro, in his traditional end-of-year message to the nation, urged political leaders to put aside party feuding and “rise above politics” - remarks taken as a clear sign that he was against an early general election.

Scalfaro recalled that 1 January 1998 would mark the 50th anniversary of Italy's current constitution and said it would be a great thing if that date saw the fruition of any constitutional reforms that a Governissimo might prepare. On 1 January 1996, this hardly seemed a feasible prospect.

Meanwhile, Italian diplomats are playing down speculation that the government's troubles at home could have a serious impact on its ability to run a successful EU presidency, insisting there is much common ground between political parties in Italy on the issue of Europe.