Charlemagne: Taking on the bear

Russia's awkward position in Europe's jigsaw

FOR anyone growing up in western Europe during the cold war, Russians were only marginally more accessible than Martians. A few stock images defined the country: a gymnast, a soldier, a hatchet-faced member of the Politburo. There were no casual contacts with Russians, as the country had walled itself off. Now, however, the Russians are back: from the beaches of Cyprus, to the ski-slopes of Switzerland, to the London property market, where grateful estate agents refer to rich Russian buyers as “the new Saudis”. Chelsea have just won the English football championship for the first time in 50 years, courtesy of huge injections of cash by Roman Abramovich, a Russian oligarch. The team now runs on to the pitch preceded by the sound of Cossack music, in grateful tribute to their benefactor.

However, although it has been easy to re-admit Russians into the social and cultural life of Europe, fitting Russia into the European political order has proved harder. The cold war imposed a grim clarity on the relationship. And, before 1917, it was clear that Russia had to be a player in any conceivable continental balance of power. The 19th-century idealists who first dreamed of a united Europe assumed that Russia would be part of the new system: Victor Hugo's appeal in 1849 for European unity was addressed to Russia, as well as to France and Germany.

Yet today's European Union of 25 countries, even if it rises to 35 or more in the future, quite clearly excludes Russia. A few mavericks, such as Silvio Berlusconi, the Italian prime minister, and Grigory Yavlinsky, a Russian liberal politician, have suggested that Russia should eventually join the EU, but there seems to be little enthusiasm - on either side. The EU's ambassador in Moscow has joked nervously that it would be more a case of the EU joining Russia, than of Russia joining the EU. Given the country's huge size - it spans 11 time zones - one can see what he means. Whereas the leaders of Turkey and Ukraine speak openly and often of their ambitions to join the EU, no such talk is ever heard from Vladimir Putin. A country with recent memories of being one of the world's two superpowers cannot contemplate the relatively humbling idea of being just another member of the European club. The Brussels ideology, with its emphasis on “shared sovereignty” and the dismantling of borders, is unappealing to a Russian leadership that is more comfortable with traditional ideas of power and territory.

Rather than seeking to join the EU, Russia now has regular summits with the powers-that-be in Brussels. There will be an EU-Russia summit on May 10th in Moscow, the day after the Victory Day celebrations. Mr Putin and the European Commission's José Manuel Barroso plan to sign lengthy agreements on trade, regulation and cultural and scientific exchanges, as well as on such concrete topics as airlines' rights to fly over Siberia.

Behind the friendly handshakes, though, the relationship between Russia and the EU is deteriorating. Lilia Shevtsova of the Carnegie Endowment in Moscow says that the Russian government is becoming “more and more suspicious” of the EU. The fact that the three Baltic states, once part of a Union run from Moscow, have just joined another headquartered in Brussels makes it seem as if the EU is gaining territory at Russia's expense. Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs, a magazine, thinks that the Russian leadership has concluded that “the European Union is just a new kind of empire”: one that threatens to continue to expand into Russia's historic sphere of influence. The Ukrainian revolution, and especially the role played by new members such as the Poles in supporting Ukraine's democrats, has stoked Russian fears of EU expansionism.

The EU has one powerful motive to try to maintain a decent working relationship with Mr Putin: growing dependence on Russian energy. The Russians are the world's second-largest oil exporter and its largest exporter of natural gas. Germany gets some 40% of its gas from Russia; western oil companies are excited by its large, untapped reserves. This vital economic tie is creating what one diplomat acknowledges is a “Saudi-style relationship” between Russia and western Europe - rather as it did in the dying days of the Soviet Union. Whatever reservations they may have about political developments in today's Russia, the Europeans have a strong incentive to be tactful.

Divide and rule

Unfortunately, if typically, divisions exist within the EU over how indulgent to be to Mr Putin. The Poles and Balts remain deeply suspicious of a place that controlled them until 1989. But France and Germany are still keen to embrace the Russian president. The British are in the middle: keen on a good relationship with Russia, but alarmed by Mr Putin's anti-democratic instincts. The French and Germans counter British suggestions that the EU should tut-tut a bit louder with the argument that any successor to Mr Putin may be even less congenial. But their opponents within the EU detect other Franco-German motives. France's Jacques Chirac has been open about his desire for a multipolar world, to counter the dominance of the United States. He undoubtedly sees Russia as one of those poles, a point that became evident during the Iraq crisis, when the French, German and Russian leaders staged joint press conferences to oppose the war.

The splits within the EU over Iraq are a reminder of something else: that the future of its relationship with Russia depends not just on developments within Russia, but also on how the EU itself changes. A club that developed into a tight political union of the sort that France and Germany seem to dream of would find it very hard ever to accommodate Russia. The only question then would be whether the EU developed a friendly or an adversarial relationship with its giant eastern neighbour. But if the EU were to turn into a larger, looser organisation that easily included Ukraine and Turkey, then even Russia might yet find a place within it - one day.

Commentary feature on Russia's awkward position in Europe's jigsaw.

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