French politics: The surprising Dominique de Villepin

A prime minister who is doing better than many had expected

WHEN Dominique de Villepin was appointed France's prime minister on May 31st, the choice was widely considered eccentric, to say the least. A sour anti-elite mood had just led French voters to reject the European Union constitution in a referendum. President Jacques Chirac responded by picking an unelected aristocrat. The French were feeling glum about unemployment and globalisation. Mr de Villepin, a poet, has never held an economic portfolio in his life. Yet, two months on, France's new prime minister seems to be working out rather better than his critics predicted.

To glimpse the man the French thought they were in for, consider a random passage from one of Mr de Villepin's (many) recent books: “Today orphaned, faltering, easily disillusioned, France still burns with a desire for history: she has kept intact the flame of a great nation, fervent defender of her status.” Famous for his rousing defence, as foreign minister, of France's objections to the war in Iraq, Mr de Villepin was known for his romanticism and impulsiveness, his poetry and his history books, his admiration for Napoleon and his idealisation of the state. “Everyday matters bore him, mediocrity depresses him, adversity invigorates him,” Nicolas Sarkozy, head of the ruling centre-right UMP party, once wrote. Days after Mr de Villepin's appointment, 68% of respondents told Ifop, a pollster, that they did not expect him to restore confidence.

Two months on, Mr de Villepin has, by and large, steered clear of his caricature. He has made employment his priority, dropping in on a job-centre for his first official visit. He is creating a new two-year job contract for companies with fewer than 20 employees, with much-needed easy-dismissal rules, which will come into effect as soon as September. He has promised to tighten controls on welfare benefits. And he has accelerated privatisation, selling a first stake in Gaz de France in July, and announcing a controversial plan to sell three motorway-toll companies this summer.

With his visit to London this week to meet Britain's Tony Blair, Mr de Villepin has also begun to reappropriate France's counter-terrorism policy from his ambitious interior minister, who is none other than Mr Sarkozy. When he himself was interior minister, Mr de Villepin began the policy of expelling foreign imams suspected of preaching violence, and launched plans to train the rest in French language and history. His proposal to Mr Blair that European countries should share intelligence on jihadis who have attended training camps in Afghanistan and elsewhere was one he had long advocated.

The electorate seems to approve. Mr de Villepin's popularity rating jumped by 11 points in July, according to Ipsos, another pollster, to 44% - well ahead of Mr Chirac's lowly 32%. The gap between Mr de Villepin and the persistently popular Mr Sarkozy has narrowed: 12 percentage points separated the two in May, according to Ifop, but the margin was down to a point in July. An arresting poll in Paris-Match magazine in June suggested that, in a run-off between two presidential alternatives, Mr de Villepin would beat either of the top two Socialist pretenders - Francois Hollande and Laurent Fabius - by only a little less than would Mr Sarkozy.

Might Mr de Villepin be shaping up as a credible successor to Mr Chirac on the right? Nothing could be less certain. The prime minister may be proving more pragmatic and focused than expected, but many an obstacle lies in the way. The public finances are under severe strain: the government is highly unlikely to keep its budget deficit below 3% of GDP next year, let alone to revive its postponed income-tax cuts. Unemployment remains over 10%. Growth remains sluggish, and consumer spending weakened in the second quarter. France still feels morose. And Mr de Villepin has yet to be tested by big street protests, which the unions are promising for the autumn.

Mr de Villepin, who worked for seven years as Mr Chirac's chief of staff, shares his faith in the faltering French social model. Mr Sarkozy may be happy to mock a model that produces mass unemployment, but Mr de Villepin believes that tinkering is enough. Thus he is ready to inject limited flexibility into the labour market, but he is not pushing for a more wide-reaching overhaul. He was the first to jump to the defence of Danone, a French food group, when rumours started of a takeover by the American giant, PepsiCo. This week he again insisted on the need for “economic patriotism”. Given the popular disillusion with Mr Chirac, the prime minister may find he is too closely tied to him to represent a credible sense of change.

But the biggest obstacle remains Mr Sarkozy. Such is the UMP boss's popularity, combined with his powers of self-belief and his talent for self-promotion, that it is sometimes assumed that nothing stands between him and the presidency in 2007. Certainly, UMP deputies, fearful for their own jobs, have gravitated herd-like to support the boss of a party originally designed solely to elect Mr Chirac - and they remain distrustful of the never-elected prime minister. Mr Sarkozy's constant taunting of the president, unthinkable were Mr Chirac not so weak, seems only to cement his popularity among voters fed up after ten years of rule by la chiraquie. He recently likened the president to Louis XVI, telling reporters that “I don't intend quietly to change the locks at Versailles while France revolts.”

All the same, it is another two years until the next presidential election. “One cannot assume that Sarkozy will be the only candidate on the right,” says Dominique Reynie, a political scientist at Sciences-Po. The more Mr Sarkozy adopts a populist tone and agitated manner, the more Mr de Villepin is likely to cultivate a quietly authoritative style. Even the prime minister's hauteur might not be a handicap. As Mr Reynie says, “the French think they embody democracy, but they have a secret fascination for monarchy: de Villepin represents a character that enjoys more approval than the French like to admit.”

History teaches that, with fratricidal division, much can change in a short time. In 1995, the right fielded two rival candidates from within the same party. One - Edouard Balladur, supported by an upcoming politician named Mr Sarkozy - enjoyed far stronger poll ratings and parliamentary support until the month before the vote. But it was the other who went on to win. His name? Jacques Chirac.

Feature looks at the first weeks of new French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin, appointed 31 May 2005.

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