Turkey and the European Union. Bazaar bargaining

More troubles over the conditions for starting Turkey's EU entry talks

IT WAS only in December that European Union leaders agreed to open membership talks with Turkey on October 3rd. Yet as the date looms, doubts over whether the talks will start keep recurring. The Turkish foreign minister, Abdullah Gul, says that this is not “because of any fault of my government, but rather because of certain countries within the EU.” He told The Economist last week that “should they [the EU] propose anything short of full membership, or any new conditions, we will walk away. And this time it will be for good.”

Mr Gul's tough remarks follow weeks of diplomatic clashes. The French president, Jacques Chirac, said that Turkey must recognise Cyprus before starting talks. The leader of Germany's Christian Democrats (and the likely winner of this month's German election), Angela Merkel, said once again that the talks should lead only to “a privileged partnership”. Turkey's prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is fuming. “If they provoke him any further he may well explode,” said an aide.

It was in this highly charged atmosphere that EU foreign ministers this week began two days of informal talks. The Turks are arguing that, since late July, when they signed a protocol extending their customs union with the EU to the ten new members that joined last year, including Cyprus, there has been nothing more to discuss. But there is a row over the small print. Mindful of nationalist sentiment at home, Turkey decided to issue a declaration, after signing the protocol, that it would recognise Cyprus only after a comprehensive settlement for the whole island was reached.

EU legal experts noted that the declaration does not rule out recognition. Yet, largely at the urging of the French, the EU is now preparing to make a counter-declaration. Its precise wording was still being negotiated at mid-week. The Turks hope that the British, who hold the rotating EU presidency, will devise a formula acceptable to them (and to their public). But the Greek-Cypriots say they too must be satisfied. One knotty problem may be Turkey's continuing ban on Cypriot aircraft and ships entering its airspace and ports.

Even the counter-declaration may not be the end of the matter. Should membership conditions be stiffened in the framework document for the negotiations, Turkey's parliament may not approve the extension of the customs protocol next month. Turkey complains that it is being subject to tougher rules than any previous candidate. Not only is it required to harmonise its laws; it must also demonstrate its implementation of them, for every one of the 35 “chapters” in the framework.

Haggling over the words in the framework is likely to continue right up to October 3rd, echoing the drama last December when wrangles over Cyprus almost wrecked the summit deal to begin talks. “No one should expect Turkey to make any concessions this time,” says Mr Gul. “We have stuck to our side of the bargain, the EU should stick to theirs.”