Moldova and Transdniestria. Gangsters cornered

Ukraine tries to broker peace in Moldova

AT SOME point in the past few years, 70 portable surface-to-air Igla missiles disappeared from an ex-Soviet military stockpile in Transdniestria, a breakaway region of Moldova. Western governments doubt the authorities' undocumented explanation that the missiles were destroyed after water leaked on them. “We don't know where they are or who's got them,” says a senior western security source.

This tale exemplifies western headaches over Transdniestria, a rogue statelet that won quasi-independence after a brief war in 1992, and has survived ever since on Russian military support, money and cheap gas, plus a thriving arms business and other smuggling activities. Not that the locals gain much. Transdniestria is a police state; its existence helps keep Moldova one of the poorest countries in Europe. But it benefits people at the top. Corrupt politicians and officials in neighbouring countries enjoy the perks of illicit trade through Transdniestria. Russia sees the region - which has a largely Russian-speaking population - as a surviving bastion of its former empire. Fitful western involvement through such outfits as the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe has had little effect.

Now change is on the way. Ukraine, previously an accomplice in Transdniestria's smuggling business, has launched a peace plan, broadly backed by the European Union. It features free elections in Transdniestria and a negotiated settlement with Moldova under international supervision. Reaction has been mixed, but so far nobody has rejected it outright.

Ukraine is also exerting practical pressure: next week, it will open five new customs posts on the border, jointly staffed with Moldovan officials. Previously, Ukraine had insisted that its constitution forbade foreign customs officers from operating on its territory. That was a convenient fiction which allowed smuggling to thrive. The most lucrative illegal business may find a way round. But the new moves are still ominous for Transdniestria, especially if they presage international supervision of the border, which an EU mission is considering.

Genuinely free elections in Transdniestria would be hard to organise, given the lack of independent political parties or media and the omnipresent secret police. And what will happen to Russia's armed forces, called “peacekeepers” by the Kremlin, but unwelcome overstayers by Moldovans? “It would be desirable if western leaders would raise this with President Putin,” comments Adriaan Jakobovits de Szeged, the EU's envoy to the region, drily.

Others are gloomier. Vladimir Socor, a hawkish pro-Moldovan based in Germany, says some Ukrainians' motives are still dodgy: “Russia has realised that it is too weak to hold on to Transdniestria, while these Ukrainians are not strong enough to grab it. So they need each other to ensure a condominium.”

Ukraine is trying to broker peace, aided by the EU, for Transdniestria, a breakaway region of Moldova.