Sweden’s government. Undesirable Persson

The Social Democrats face an uphill struggle to win next year's election

THE short Swedish summer is over by mid-August. As Goran Persson, the Social Democratic prime minister, returns to the political fray, he faces a long autumn trying to revive his party's fortunes. Just over a year before the next election, combined support for his minority government and its allies, the Left and Green parties, is at its lowest for a decade. After 11 years - indeed, after being in power for all but nine of the past 73 years - the Social Democrats are finding it tricky to persuade voters that they haven't run out of steam.

To an outsider, this may seem odd. Compared with most other European countries, Sweden's economy is in good shape. High-tech industry is booming. The public finances are in surplus. Last year GDP grew by 3.5%. Growth this year is expected to be nearer 2%, but that is still faster than most euro-area economies. Inflation remains low and, with Sweden outside the euro, the central bank was able cut interest rates to 1.5% in June.

The cloud is that unemployment remains stubbornly above the government's 4% target. An unadjusted figure of 7.1% in June is not that high by European standards, but many economists believe that the true number who cannot find work is a lot bigger. It is masked by liberal use of make-work schemes, further education, early retirement and sick leave - on as much as 80-90% of previous salary. Employers fearful of such costs are understandably reluctant to hire. The spectre of jobless growth haunts a government that has promised to cut unemployment.

The Social Democrats have also been hit by a string of petty scandals, ranging from the fiddling of membership records in its youth wing, so as to secure bigger grants, to the abuse of housing perks. None of this is big enough to claim a ministerial resignation, still less a prosecution, but enough to gnaw away at the trustworthiness of a party that is used to running the country. Public bickering within the local Stockholm party has not helped.

What of Mr Persson himself, now in his tenth year as prime minister? Remarried and with a recently acquired country estate to renovate, his enthusiasm for the job has been questioned. He is respected rather than liked. In April, he hinted that he might be willing to step down. But he has no obvious replacement. The murder of his foreign minister, Anna Lindh, in 2003 robbed the party of a natural successor. Margot Wallstrom, Sweden's European commissioner, with whom Mr Persson has an icy relationship, has ruled out a return to domestic politics.

In contrast, the opposition has been reinvigorated by Fredrik Reinfeldt, the leader of the conservative Moderates, the biggest of the four main opposition parties. Mr Reinfeldt has dragged the Moderates to the centre, dumped the ideological tone of his predecessors by, for instance, reducing the party's zeal for tax cuts. His emphasis is on reforming, not scrapping, the Swedes' much-cherished welfare model. It may be too early to count the Social Democrats out: Mr Persson remains a formidable campaigner. But he faces a tough task to persuade Swedish voters to give him and his party another four years in the sun.

Article says that the Social Democrats in Sweden face an uphill struggle to win the general election in 2006.

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