Cyprus and Turkey

A helpful election, but problems still ahead for Turkish Cyprus - and Turkey

AFTER leading the Turkish Cypriots for over three decades, Rauf Denktash, the mulish president of the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, is at last stepping down in favour of his determinedly pro-European rival, Mehmet Ali Talat. Mr Talat easily won the presidential election on April 17th, on a platform of reuniting the divided island and joining the European Union. The departure of Mr Denktash is being hailed by pro-peace Turks and Greeks as a step towards ending Cyprus's 30-year-old division. For years Mr Denktash (with help from like-minded hawks in Ankara) had torpedoed all United Nations plans for a settlement, earning him the nickname “Mr No”.

But can Mr Talat, an engineer who once made a living from repairing fridges, make a difference? Despite welcoming noises from Ankara, Brussels and Nicosia, few observers think he will do so quickly. The island's wealthy Greek-Cypriot majority voted massively against the latest UN plan last April, and waltzed into the EU as the Turkish-Cypriots looked on. With recent opinion polls showing that three-quarters of his people continue to oppose the UN blueprint, the Greek-Cypriot president, Tassos Papadopoulos, is in no hurry to return to the negotiating table.

In Turkey itself, the picture looks even murkier. Last week, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister, alarmed EU diplomats when he told pro-Islamic businessmen that the EU was engaged in “efforts to dismember” Turkey. With a spasm of nationalist violence erupting across Anatolia (aimed in some cases against Kurds), and with polls showing falling support among Turks for EU membership, Mr Erdogan's words have raised new questions about his commitment to joining the EU.

Ominously enough, the chief of the general staff, Hilmi Ozkok, leapt into the fray this week, reminding an audience of Turkish cadets that Cyprus, where Turkey retains some 30,000 troops, is of “strategic significance”. He warned the Greek Cypriots that they would not be permitted to use their membership of the EU to extract further unilateral concessions from Turkey. This despite the fact that, braving cries of treason in opposition circles, the government agreed last year to formalise relations with all ten of the EU's new members, including Cyprus, as a condition for its own entry talks to begin on October 3rd.

An intra-EU legal wrangle has delayed implementation of the deal, preventing the long-promised easing of trade and air-travel restrictions on the Turkish Cypriots, and adding to frustration among Turkey's leaders. Meanwhile Mr Denktash has made clear that he will pursue his campaign of obstructionism from beyond the presidency. Mr Talat may yet find himself yearning for the days when he dealt with simpler things, such as fridges.