Italy’s violent politics. More ballots, more bullets

Date: 22/10/05

While deepening Italy's democracy, the primaries showed a dark side too

THE winner got three-quarters of the vote. A rival claimed the ballot was rigged. And, in an outlying polling station, a gunman murdered a local bigwig. Not another volatile, double-barrelled enclave in the post-communist world, but Europe's fourth-biggest economy, Italy.

On October 16th, the left-wing opposition held what was slated as Europe's first primary election, to choose a candidate to run against Silvio Berlusconi for the prime ministership next year. It was hard to say what it did more to demonstrate: the shrewdness of the winner and originator of the primary, Romano Prodi, or the disturbing abnormality of the country he aspires to govern again.

When Francesco Fortugno, deputy governor of the southern region of Calabria and a member of the centre-left Democracy and Freedom party, went to vote, he was shot and fatally wounded by an apparently professional assassin. His death appeared to be the work of Calabria's organised crime syndicate, the 'ndrangheta, and a reminder that much of southern Italy is under the sway of mobsters. Murder was not the only way the south impinged. One of the primary candidates, Clemente Mastella, a former Christian Democrat and leader of a small party that draws most of its support from the Mezzogiorno, announced he was leaving the opposition alliance because, he claimed, the vote had been fixed in advance.

Government politicians, too, questioned a ballot that owed much to the organisational capacity of the biggest opposition party, the formerly communist Democrats of the Left. The justice minister, Roberto Castelli, branded it a "Soviet-style political campaign", arguing that since the polling had not been independently monitored, there was no reason to treat the results as credible.

These were surprising on at least two counts. They indicated that 4.3m votes were cast--more than double the most optimistic forecast--and that 74% went to Mr Prodi. His main rival, Fausto Bertinotti of the hard-left Communist Refoundation party, whose supporters had been expected to turn out in force, was credited with 14.7%. None of the other candidates gathered as much as 5%.

An exultant Mr Prodi called the outcome "a dream". Was it anything more? The best reason for thinking it was more than a fantasy came from the opposition leaders themselves, who acted as if the results were accurate. Even Mr Mastella softened his tone after discovering he had finished third. He and his counterparts appeared to be genuinely buoyed by the evidence of their followers' enthusiasm and, most importantly for the future, seemed to grasp the point that, by voting for Mr Prodi, an overwhelming majority of their supporters had also opted for his favourite cause--unity.

As a former president of the European Commission and the only man to have beaten Mr Berlusconi on the hustings--in 1996--Mr Prodi is widely liked and respected on the left. But lacking a party of his own, he has often had a difficult time imposing his authority on his squabbling lieutenants. Following the primary, a novel tone of respect was audible in their references to him.

The leader of Democracy and Freedom, Francesco Rutelli, signalled he would shelve plans for his party to run alone for some of the seats in parliament. This was a prudent move, if only because Mr Berlusconi is trying to change the rules for the next election, and the new ones reward compact alliances. It looks increasingly likely that the change will be approved by parliament, and pundits agree that it should help the right. The opposition's curious experiment has put new wind in Mr Prodi's sails and given it an undisputed captain. But if he is to outrace Mr Berlusconi, his crew must somehow be induced to desist altogether from rocking the boat. The primaries were only a start.

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