Turkey and the European Union. Stumbling to Brussels

The Turkish government has work to do if it is to begin EU entry talks in October

WHEN European Union leaders agreed on December 17th to open membership talks with Turkey, the country's future looked better than it had for decades. Yet three months on, the reformist zeal of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the mildly Islamist prime minister, seems to have fizzled out - and there are troubling signs of anti-westernism in some Turkish quarters.

While trying (not always successfully) to avoid public rows, EU diplomats are now saying that Turkey must get moving if entry talks are to start, as promised, on October 3rd. Before the talks can begin, Turkey must formalise relations with all ten countries that joined the EU last May - including the Greek-Cypriot government, which is not recognised in Ankara. Mr Erdogan has promised to oblige, but time is short for this change to be ratified by all interested parties (including the European and Turkish parliaments).

However mildly such criticism is couched, Turkey does not react well to western prodding. When the EU's man in Ankara, Hansjorg Kretschmer, spoke recently of “slippage” in Turkey's reforms, there was an angry response from the foreign minister, Abdullah Gul. “Who does he think he is?” the minister demanded.

A sense of drift in Ankara has deepened with the defection of eight government deputies, including the liberal culture minister, Erkan Mumcu. Mr Erdogan has yet to appoint a top EU negotiator. The government has failed to finalise laws on tax reform, banking and social security, and as a result, its stand-by agreement with the IMF has yet to be renewed. Tensions with America over Iraq, and over a planned visit to Syria by President Ahmet Necdet Sezer, have added to the jitters.

What do pesky foreigners such as Mr Kretschmer have in mind when they dare to criticise Turkey? He cited restrictions on property holdings and educational activities of religious minorities, including the Greek Orthodox Patriarchate, and police brutality - and this was before March 6th, when television showed policemen beating women demonstrators in Istanbul. The EU enlargement commissioner, Olli Rehn, was in Ankara that day; his horror grew as his hosts defended the police and scolded local media for “telling tales” on Turkey.

The prime minister may be trying to assuage hardliners who resent his failure to make the changes they seek most; they want him to ease curbs on Islamic headscarves, and to repeal laws that stop graduates of Islamic schools that train future imams from entering secular universities. Or, more worryingly, Mr Erdogan may be influenced by a resurgence of Turkish nationalism, which has surfaced in various nasty ways. The Turkish bestseller lists have recently featured Hitler's “Mein Kampf” and “Metal Storm”, a pot-boiler depicting an American invasion of Turkey. The Islamist and far-right press is awash with stories of Christian missionaries converting hapless Muslims throughout Anatolia; and of suspect foreigners, notably Greeks and Israelis, snapping up Turkish land. Last week the constitutional court invalidated a law allowing foreigners to buy property in Turkey. This prompted some EU officials to ask whether Turks really want to join the European club.

The answer, say most pollsters, is still a resounding yes. Most pundits think the new mood does not signal a rejection of Europe: they see it as a reaction to global events, including American policy in Iraq, or a response to the anti-Turkish sentiment which is rising in many parts of the EU - and to the EU's failure to ease the trade embargo on northern Cyprus.

In the past few days, there have been some signs of the government shaking off its inertia. Mr Gul has just reaffirmed Turkey's commitment to EU membership. Six policemen involved in beating women on March 6th have been suspended. The government has promised to change the new penal code after protests by journalists. And after much hesitation, Mr Erdogan will visit Israel for the first time in May.

If the government has been spurred back into life, some credit may go to the army. Last week, a top general accused the government of having “no policy” on Iraq. That an officer was willing to break the army's EU-inspired silence may have prodded Turkey's political masters into a fresh burst of energy - and a fresh bid to point the country westwards.

Article says that the Turkish government has much work to do if it is to begin EU entry talks in October 2005.

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