Denmark. Full Fogh forward

The centre-right heads for victory in next week's election

ANDERS FOGH RASMUSSEN, who leads a centre-right coalition with support from the anti-immigrant Danish People's Party, seems sure to win Denmark's general election on February 8th. All 32 opinion polls since the election was called on January 18th have given the government a lead of between seven and ten points over the Social Democrat-led opposition. This suggests that the government may win as many as 100 of the 179 parliamentary seats, up from 94 in 2001, and that the Social Democrats face their worst result since before the first world war.

Several factors lie behind Mr Fogh Rasmussen's popularity, but the most surprising may be the welfare state. Polls suggest that most voters see him, and not the opposition leader, Mogens Lykketoft, as the best guarantor of their social system. A centre-right party might be expected to favour the greatest level of individual freedom and the least interference by government, whereas the Social Democrats were the architects of the welfare state.

Yet Danes' attitudes have changed. Most still see free education, free health care, cheap child care and high-quality services for pensioners as their birthright. But they are increasingly reluctant to pay for them with high taxes. Denmark's tax burden is second only to Sweden's among European Union countries. This has turned Mr Fogh Rasmussen's cap on tax and other fiscal adjustments, which he promised in 2001, into a runaway success. The prime minister says his tax cap, tax cuts and cuts in duties on booze and cigarettes have put a yearly DKr17,000 ($3,000) more into the average family's pockets. Meanwhile, such family-friendly initiatives as longer maternity leave and shorter hospital waiting lists have persuaded voters that Mr Fogh Rasmussen is not bent on dismantling the welfare state. Such adjustments as denying teenagers the dole are seen as necessary tweaks, not a conservative revolution.

Mr Fogh Rasmussen has made much of his ability to keep promises. In 2001, he pledged to curb immigration, cap taxes and crack down on crime. Relatively few voters care that the country's restrictions on immigration, strongly backed by the Danish People's Party, have soiled its liberal reputation abroad. Public opinion has swung against the Iraq war, and two-thirds of Danes want their 500 troops home soon, but they are unlikely to punish Mr Fogh Rasmussen for sending them.

Both the main parties kicked off their campaigns with a smorgasbord of promises. But to many voters, these promises are indistinguishable. Mr Fogh Rasmussen and Mr Lykketoft both say they will create jobs, boost education, improve child care, keep a tight rein on immigration and put more money in people's pockets. Such duplicated pledges make personal appeal decisive. Here too Mr Fogh Rasmussen has the edge. Mr Lykketoft is experienced and cerebral but uncharismatic. A makeover in which he shaved off his goatee beard and acquired a new haircut has not helped. Only a serious blunder by Mr Fogh Rasmussen in the last few days could swing it for the hapless Social Democrats now.

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