Troubled Moldova. Tilting westward

Yet another ex-Soviet republic looking to the European Union

WHEN Victor Yushchenko won the Ukrainian presidency, many Russians declared that Russia had “lost” Ukraine thanks to western meddling. Yet in Moldova, Russia is proving quite capable of losing an ally without western help. Four years ago, Moldova's Communist Party won election by promising pro-Russian policies, including eventual union with Russia and Belarus. Now they are chasing re-election in March by promising pro-western policies, including integration with the European Union. They changed course because even they could not stomach Russia's strategy of keeping Moldova divided and weak.

The Communists now want Russia to pull its troops out of Transdniestria, which is controlled by a sinister regime under a Russian-born “president”, Igor Smirnov. Russia helped Transdniestria to win a bloody war of secession after the Soviet collapse of 1991, amid spurious claims that Moldova might be swallowed by Romania. When the Communists won power in 2001 they hoped Russia would support reunification, with modest guarantees of Transdniestria's autonomy. Instead, Russia pushed for a treaty giving Transdniestria near-independence within a federal state, enough seats in parliament to block constitutional change - and the long-term presence of Russian troops.

Moldova's Communist president, Vladimir Voronin, came within a day of signing this treaty in late 2003, but backed off after western warnings. The U-turn to Europe followed. But will the new course bring Moldova any closer to building a normal economy and government? This post-Soviet wreck is the poorest country in Europe, heavily reliant on farming and foreign remittances. Yet voters may take a step in the right direction by weakening the Communist Party in the elections. Despite its new pro-western orientation, the party remains a secretive bureaucracy with dubious democratic credentials and a chokehold on the broadcast media. After opposition victories in Ukraine and Romania, Moldova is a “red stain in an orange sea”, says one local politician.

The polls suggest that the Communists may not gain a majority in the 101-seat parliament, let alone the 71 seats they won last time (enough to change the constitution). Three other groups will probably share the chamber: the pro-western Christian Democrats; the Social Democrats, backed by business interests; and Democratic Moldova, a fractious coalition within which Moscow has been fishing for allies. Two openly pro-Russian parties may not win any seats. But the crucial point is that constitutional change will be far harder in a divided parliament.

A better and more open government in Moldova will deserve a lot more international help, starting with the neighbours. Romania is already offering diplomatic support. Ukraine could offer vital practical help. Transdniestria's smugglers and arms salesmen - the backbone of the economy, along with a big Ukrainian-owned steelworks - trade through Ukraine, especially via Odessa. The Ukrainian government could cripple Transdniestria by policing the common border tightly. But that would upset Ukrainians.

If Moldova is to achieve deep and irreversible change, however, the EU must offer it a clear path towards eventual membership. It has done this for the Balkan countries, which are no more European and no less troubled than Moldova. Its reluctance to talk of membership for Ukraine looks short-sighted: when Ukraine joins the queue, geography will dictate giving a place to Moldova too. The sooner the process is started, the less the danger of either country wobbling off-course.

This assumes that the Transdniestrian problem will, in effect, solve itself, as the future benefits of EU integration outweigh those of separatism. But Russia will be a big obstacle. At worst, it might even step up its military presence in Transdniestria, to make a second Kaliningrad: a Russian fortress in south-east Europe. The best counter-strategy would be to confront the Russians openly over what they are protecting in Transdniestria: a big, ugly smuggling racket, with a piece of land attached. Even Russia may not want to spend too much political capital in such a cause.

Yet another ex-Soviet Republic is looking towards the European Union.